It is done on a bit of the down low, but every match day, there'll often be bets totalling hundreds of thousands of pounds, sometimes millions, placed on an event.
We are not talking bets that are valued at a couple of quid each and adding them up. Oh no. These are single bets, many of them coming from Asia (although there are some British gamblers there too). As you can probably imagine, these people aren't gambling on a whim. They are gambling using sophisticated statistical analysis, some of which is created by Tony Bloom, the man behind Brighton and Hove Albion. While it won't guarantee a win, proper statistical analysis can help to gain an advantage in betting. Let's explain.
What are stats and analytics?
They're pretty much what it says on the tin. This is when you'll look at stats that could influence the type of bet you're making. For example:
• How a team is currently performing.
• How a team performs at home/away.
• Their past performance/s against the team they're currently facing.
• Average score.
• Player performances.
We're sure you get the point. By looking at these factors, the idea is that a gambler can make much more informed bets. It doesn't necessarily mean that a gambler will win the bet they're placing, but it becomes much more likely.
One of the advantages of betting using stats and analysis rather than a gut feel is that it removes the emotion from betting. Emotional gambling never really works. Whenever England play, for instance, bookies will often manipulate betting odds because they know people love to gamble on England, even if there is little chance of it paying off.
If you do proper betting analysis (and it is tough to do), then you'll often find that you may spot potential bets when the best betting sites in the UK may have slightly longer odds than they should have. This means more profitable bets if you win.
Using stats and analytics for the first time
As we said, this is going to be tricky. A lot of people spend years and years perfecting their analysis and stats reading. So, expect to have a fair number of losses before you even hope to win from your analytics alone. Still, we can give you a few tips that should (hopefully) make the process go a lot easier.
Apply statistical analysis to lower leagues, not the Premier League. A lot of the time, bets in the lower leagues will be undervalued, meaning you're much more likely to score a good deal there. If you're looking to make cash from sports betting, you should rarely ever bet on major leagues.
If you hear about team news, injuries or suspensions early, capitalise on those bets right away, before the market has had an opportunity to price that information in.
If gambling on football, use stats like xG, form and head-to-head stats. xG is becoming one of the most important statistical analysis models for betting on football. As you may know, this means 'expected goals'. So, if a team has an xG of 2, then they have an expected number of goals of 2.
If betting on football, read historical performances, particularly about the conditions around the game that you're betting on.
Batting SR and bowling economy are key stats for cricket, while rugby analysis will be very similar to football. Don't forget to pay attention to team momentum. If a team seems to be winning a lot, then chances are higher that they will continue to win.
Make sure that you mix all of the data you're reading with proper news, too. This means news about injuries and morale. This will factor into the decisions that you make.
We highly recommend that you pay attention to betting markets and tip sites, even if you're not planning on placing a bet on an event. This will help your learning, as you'll be able to see how analysis and statistics influence betting markets, and the types of bets that you should place.
Popular tools to use
You don't need to work out everything using the power of your mind. You're in the age of technology, which means that you can use a variety of tools to aid you with your analysis. We do, however, suggest that you gain a solid understanding of how the techniques work, to ensure that you have a better idea of how the situation may work out. This means:
• If you're betting on football, use Poisson. This, essentially, looks at the xG for both teams and determines what the most likely outcome is in terms of goals. It will not factor in events that may end up happening on the field, or key team news.
• Opta: This is the service that most bookmakers use for their stats. Opta includes a ton of information on football events. Use it to your advantage. Everything that can be recorded about a game will be recorded.
• Racing Post: If you're betting on horse racing, then one of the top things you can read will be the Racing Post. This information contains all key stats about runners.
As AI becomes more sophisticated, you might also find better machine learning models. Some of these are now being used by top gamblers, but it might be tough to find a model that works.
Final thoughts
We know that this is just a brief overview of sports betting predictions using stats and analysis. You will need to do a lot more research to make this work for you. However, if you're serious about gambling, then this is something that you need to be doing. Stop betting by what you feel is right, and start betting based on cold, hard stats. Once again, we can't promise that you'll win every single time, but you will probably end up winning enough that you may cut your losses.
