Despite rumours linking him with a move to Mercedes, reigning world champion Max Verstappen is set to remain at Red Bull.
At least according to bookmakers' odds. Bookies have given the Dutchman odds of events to stay at Red Bull next season. Following remarks made by Mercedes driver George Russell, speculation has mounted that Verstappen could look for a move away from Red Bull.
Despite having won four consecutive titles between 2021 and 2024 with the dominant Red Bull car, the team has failed to compete over the past season and a half, leading many to believe the competitive winner may move away.
Verstappen has been given odds of 6/4 to move to Mercedes, 9/2 to head to Aston Martin, and 10/1 to take a sabbatical, with bettors able to potentially get even better odds by shopping around at sportsbooks outside Gamstop scheme.
These sportsbooks tend to use payment methods like cryptocurrency, which have lower fees as well as less strict registration requirements, and this enables them to provide improved prices as well as better bonuses, according to online betting expert Brett Curtis.
While talking about his own contract negotiations, Brit George Russell said that it was perfectly normal that teams like Mercedes would be having conversations with the likes of Max Verstappen. A day later, team boss Toto Wolff sat through an entire afternoon's press conference and did not deny that he was in talks with the reigning world champion.
After that particular conference, Wolff said he thought Russell was more likely to be in the Red Bull next year than Verstappen and that signing the four-time champion was not currently realistic. However, despite that comment, the rumours continued to swirl.
When asked about the situation, a Red Bull spokesperson simply said: "Max has a contract to 2028."
However, it is worth noting that F1 drivers typically have performance clauses written into their contracts. These clauses enable teams to dump drivers if they underperform and, crucially, they also enable drivers to exit contracts early if the team's cars are not performing to the required standard.
While Verstappen certainly couldn't have claimed that to be the case between 2021 and 2024, Red Bull now sits in fourth place in the Constructors' Championship, behind leaders McLaren, as well as Ferrari and Mercedes.
Red Bull has lost their chief designer, Adrian Newey, to Aston Martin. That loss could be the reason that bookmakers have given Verstappen surprisingly short odds on a move to the team despite them only officially returning to the sport in 2021.
Furthermore, there is a widespread belief that Red Bull is struggling to come to terms with new engine requirements that come into force in 2026. New rules mean that performance provided by electrical components can only amount to 50% of the engine's performance.
There is also the question of whether Mercedes would want, or could justify, bringing in Verstappen. Mercedes currently has George Russell and Kimi Antonelli racing for them. Antonelli is an 18-year-old rookie with a very bright future in the sport, so while Russell is outperforming him this season, there is a widespread belief that Red Bull would be more inclined to replace Russell with the world champion, rather than Antonelli.
Russell obviously believes this to be the case.
During an interview, he said: "Toto has made it clear to me that how I'm performing is as good as anybody. There is only one driver that you can debate in terms of performance. And those are his words and not my words, and that is why I have no concern about my future."
Russell's contract is up at the end of the season, and most other teams have their drivers locked in for next year. If Verstappen does move, Russell's seat at Red Bull and a seat at Aston Martin are the two only real options. Although Russell has said he believes he is more likely to stay at Mercedes than not.
But, while Verstappen is a serial winner, he doesn't come without his own problems. His salary is believed to be around $75m at Red Bull. And that is a figure that Mercedes, the public corporation, would struggle to match.
Furthermore, Verstappen's style is one of driving on the edge. Often, he drives over the edge. He currently has 11 points on his super licence, meaning one more point would lead to a race ban. He has accumulated those points thanks to his part in several high-profile incidents.
Similarly, he isn't the kind of driver who will always toe the line. He is prone to speaking his mind if he believes doing so will benefit him. There are questions as to whether his attitude could upset the figurative apple cart at Mercedes and cause rifts within the organisation.
It is worth noting that, in his most recent interview, team boss Christian Horner said that the Dutchman "would like to finish his career in a Red Bull car".
But, while F1 drivers and managers may not be quite as fickle as footballers and football managers, such statements are made at the moment based on the information at that time - information that can change very quickly. There is still every chance that Verstappen could leave beleaguered Red Bull and move elsewhere for next season.
