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The four stages of Aston Martin's budget cap grief

NEWS STORY
17/04/2023

Is Lawrence Stroll currently encountering the first stage of budget cap grief?

It is widely recognised that there are five stages of grief, being; denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance.

With this in mind, one has to wonder if Aston Martin is currently going through the first stage of budget cap grief.

According to The Usual Suspects, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist. The greatest trick that F1 ever pulled was convincing the world, including the teams, that the playing field can be levelled.

Sure, there is always going to be the odd, freak result, but the likes of Williams, Haas or AlphaTauri challenging for podiums, far less wins, on a regular basis, come on!

For reasons previously explained, the budget cap was never going to work, not unless the sport effectively started from scratch, for those at the top of the pile at the time the cap was put in place were always going to remain there.

Mercedes made a mistake in 2022 and following its failure to learn is currently paying the price, however Melbourne showed that the German team is determined to make its way back to the front.

Ferrari is simply being Ferrari, as any long-time fan of the sport will tell you, whilst Red Bull is riding the crest of a wave it will likely continue to ride until the new formula in 2026.

And then there's Aston Martin.

If a team could write an autobiography, think about the tale the Silverstone-based outfit could tell, from its days as Jordan, through its various guises and owners, Midland, Spyker, Force India and finally Racing Point.

When Lawrence Stroll bought Force India in mid-2018, there were many who thought 'here we go again', predicting that just a couple of years down the line there would be another change of name and ownership as the Canadian billionaire became the latest to discover the truth in the old adage about the way to make a small fortune in F1 is to start with a large fortune.

There was indeed a change of name, for in 2020, having bought a 16.7% stake in Aston Martin, the Canadian announced his plans for the future and despite the continued feeling of deja vu his subsequent signing of four-time world champion, Sebastian Vettel caused us all to take him a little more seriously.

Along with plans for a new state-of-the-art factory, Stroll started recruiting some of the best names in the business, luring talent from the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull, making clear that money was no object in his quest to make Aston Martin a winner.

On track, the results were so-so, and though some were already suggesting that the venture was clear proof that you can't buy success, Stroll continued his work (and spending) behind the scenes.

As Vettel exited stage right, the German having clearly fallen out of love with the sport, another title winning veteran entered stage left, Fernando Alonso, one of the most talented drivers to grace the sport but the bearer of much baggage.

At the launch of the AMR23, Stroll's comments followed the usual pattern. "This year's move into our new state-of-the-art factory is more than just a serious statement of intent," he said, "it will considerably strengthen and empower every single individual in this organisation, helping us to deliver on our ambition to narrow the gap to the front of the grid and, in time, become genuine championship frontrunners.

"In the past year, we have demonstrated the determination and belief needed to move forward and we have constructed a brand-new car to match our vision and ambition," he added. "The talk today is of new energy – and, believe me, it feels like a fresh start and an incredibly promising and ambitious way to begin the new season."

Blah, blah, blah!

Despite the widespread scepticism, it did indeed appear to mark a fresh start when Alonso was just 0.029s off Max Verstappen's pace on the first day of testing. Though the Spaniard lost a little ground to the world champion on the second day, by the end of the test people were taking Aston Martin a lot more seriously.

And then came Bahrain, where Alonso was on it from the outset, claiming the first of three successive podiums, while teammate Lance Stroll subsequently helped put the team a convincing second in the standings.

At which point we encounter the first stage of budget cap grief, that being the need to win races.

"He has not been having any delay in asking us 'when are we going to win the next one?'," admits team boss, Mike Krack.

"Obviously he is happy we made the step but this is not enough for his ambitions," he adds. "The good thing with Lawrence is you know where you're standing. He wants more and we will have to deliver more.

Stage two of budget cap grief is Krack claiming that the team can win races, despite the fact that at this point in time, it is highly unlikely that Aston Martin can win on merit, though tracks known for throwing up odd results - tracks such as Baku, Monaco and Hungary - offer the Silverstone-based outfit hope.

With this in mind, stage three is Krack claiming that the team would win races if it wasn't for the budget cap...

Which leads us to stage four, which is when Aston Martin continues to impress throughout 2023 and into 2024, once again finishing an impressive third in the standings, but still unable to make that final leap, at which point Krack reveals that Stroll has told the team that if the budget cap isn't scrapped, he is going to pull out of F1.

Name the stages any way you wish, but stage four is Stroll accepting that under the budget cap further progress is impossible.

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READERS COMMENTS

 

1. Posted by kenji, 19/04/2023 1:23

"There is no doubt that AM have made the crossover to a more promising team given their results to date. Stroll and his cohort have set the stage for a promising future given the infrastructure being put in place. It is most welcome and any challenge that can be mounted to disrupt the status quo is a healthy sign for the balance of the season. What a change from the old VJ Mallya days!!!"

Rating: Positive (1)     Rate comment: Positive | NegativeReport this comment

2. Posted by BrightonCorgi, 18/04/2023 13:46

"Aston Martin are bound to have some wins this season. They are not pulling out of F1 any time soon. F1 is too much a part of the whole AML brand at this point.

New and revised models are coming out this and next year. They are too poised to win on Sunday, sell on Monday. Everything is shaping up as he planned. Then again he is too smart and whatever choice he does, I would not second guess. Better to study and learn from his moves than think you know better than him."

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3. Posted by ancient70!, 17/04/2023 12:10

"I must say I do not believe the budget cap will freeze the hierarchy in stone. It will not totally level the playing field overnight, but over time there will be a convergence. There are things that tend to hold the smaller teams back, such as tools and infrastructure the big boys have built up at great expense over time. The have also been talks lately to make it possible for the smaller teams to catch up, to what degree remains to be seen. As to manpower question, what prevents a team from employing a Newey2, or a Vmax2? They may be out there, and they will most likely be a whole lot cheaper."

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4. Posted by Max Noble, 16/04/2023 1:59

"@Toado - so e fascinating observations. I agree Dieter M. Was a remarkably focused, and passionate F1 team owner. I also agree the manufacturers pop in, and out as if buying morning coffee.

Also agree that Mr. Stroll is clearly capable, and determined… but what levers can he pull to win? Hiring Adrian N. Is off the cards; He’s missed Lewis in his prime, and V. Max is also not (currently/) for sale. Hence I’m expecting him to join with those voices complaining about the budget cap spoiling the show…

I’m fascinated to see where this goes between now and 2026. I’m also fascinated to see what Fernando can do with the car the remainder of this season, and then next season!
"

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5. Posted by Toado, 15/04/2023 14:44

"@Max Noble
You seem to forget Dieter M is no more, does the rump he left behind in the board room at Red Bull have the long term commitment he had? I seriously doubt it. The F1 all out commitment thing at RB always surprised me, because its the exact opposite of the guerrilla marketing we all pioneered back in the 1990's. Their current F1 involvement is hardly all about "bang for your buck" and pissing off the big boys anymore. On top of that Max sounds just like his Dad, and Joss could alienate a sponsor quicker than anyone I ever met on pitlane
If you have been around F1 for any length of time you always look at the manufacturers with a jaundiced eye, if Merc aren't winning and the auto market is soft, will they stick at it? Track record tells me to doubt it to the point I'd put money on it.
On top of that I've known Lawrence Stroll since the 1980's, the one thing I know about Lawrence is he doesn't ever give up and will happily go down trying no matter what it takes. He's a bit of an animal our Lawrence. "

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6. Posted by Spindoctor, 14/04/2023 13:03

"@Max Noble
Couldn't agree more, though V. Max's temperament might will overwhelm his talent when (if?) he has to face any serious competition."

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7. Posted by Max Noble, 14/04/2023 8:42

"Brains+passion+application+baseline raw talent+budget = “Total Team Capability” TTC.

Budget is but one of the five requirements to succeed in any venture. One could also add “timing (luck)” but let’s not overcomplicate this!

Passion, and application are very closely matched between all the teams. Brains, raw talent, and budget are the only three significant variables. Adrian Newey is the leading brains trust right now. V. Max just has the edge in raw talent… so how much do you need to reduce Red Bull dollars to counter the brains and raw talent…?

The answer is *not* to give everyone the same budget, that simply removes budget from the equation… which only leaves brains and raw talent. The other teams can never spend their way past Newey and V. Max because they all have the same budget cap.

Usain Bolt didn’t have to fight a budget cap, as most people can afford a tee-shirt, shorts, and a pair of trainers. He simply won on dedicated training matched to raw talent.

Lawerence is about to discover the budget cap simply allows him to loose affordably.

"

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8. Posted by Mad Matt, 13/04/2023 13:51

"I think the spending cap is only part of the BigIdea (TM). The other part is giving less aero testing etc to the top teams. Playing along with the theme, they might need to make the aero testing etc scale a bit larger to penalise the top teams a little more... but either way it's not going to have an impact overnight, it'll take a couple of seasons. The spending cap acts in parallel to stop, or at least make it harder to simply spend around the problem.

I'm not saying they're right but I can at least see some logic there.
"

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