I Went To A Concert...
...and a motor race broke out! A modest riff based off the old joke about an ice hockey game breaking out at a fight...
So, Season 2026 will shortly commence. Secret testing first. Why? Well, your scribe considers two reasons. First if initially they all keep breaking it will be embarrassing for all concerned. Second, no one yet knows precisely how these cars are going to react on track, and who will have hammered an advantage out of the new rules. What's the betting that if (say) the Mercedes package is three seconds a lap faster than any other car Toto and the gang will be asked to turn it all down 5%? Enforce some parity at the start of the season. Much easier to do when the press and the fans are not around to see the race fixing first hand. If not one, or both, of these reasons... why o secret...? I remain curious to see what leaks from this event... How many hi-res drones do you think the FIA is going to have to shoot down to keep it all hidden? It's going to be fun!
Then we have two tests we are allowed to watch. Then we have wonderful Melbourne!
The lights go out... and... Oh wait. We have events packages, VIP areas, concerts, "fan experiences" (whatever that really means), top tier tickets, like the American Express Lounge, Red Bull Pit Lane, or Paddock Club, are $9,000 Aussie dollars (around £4,500) and upward per person for three days. I'd want a truck load of "fan experience" for them dollars! Not unlike the uproar over FIFA pricing of World Cup tickets for 2026, attending sport events is playing to an ever more wealthy client base. The "typical fan" is not really welcome these days. Please stream it to your device so our viewer numbers are fantastic, but after that all those of you without collectable Ferraris in the garage please stay home... thank you.
So, finally, at the venue, settling back with our "curated menu" and fresh frosty glass of Mumm... the lights go out and the racing commences. What happens?
Well as we've no major wave of new drivers on the grid the first corner should be relatively smooth sailing. We only have Arvid Lindblad joining Racing Bulls as a 2026 rookie. Hopefully he can keep his nose clean for at least the first lap! But then the first day of school often sees moments of twitchy control from many of the drivers. Just the moment for one to choose an ill-advised zig, while the guy next to him does a careless, clueless, zag... and bang! With the cars responding differently to the previous generation I'm expecting a few curious offs, and a modest amount of car-on-car biffo. Should be fun!
To the cars. To not find Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari in the top five, i.e. upper half of the grid, would be a shock. My feeling? Mercedes are disciplined, know how to win, and have a very stable team. I'd expect top three from them. Red Bull have recently had team member changes, and are moving from Honda to Red Bull/Ford power systems. Potential for disaster? Yes. Actual result... We will have to wait and see, but I'd say fifth or sixth fastest on the grid is worst case.
Ferrari? Ah! The masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! They might sneak an awesome run and be top dog... or they could be an old nag and trot along in the bottom half of the field. Let's hope it is not so. My heart shouts top five, while my head cautions bottom five.
The rest of the existing midfield will probably be around the mid-field. The burning questions around the remaining teams are... Will Haas comfortably outperform Cadillac? Will Cadillac, like BAR before them, be all sizzle, no taste, and nowhere near the front? Will Audi perform better than Sauber in 2025? And finally, and the one I think we are all most excited about... how will Aston do?
First engines. Red Bull will now supply themselves and Racing Bulls with their own power train, in partnership with Ford. That's two team's worth of spannering. Next Mercedes. They are powering themselves, McLaren, Alpine, and Williams in 2026. That is a whole huge garage worth of spannering! Four teams, eight cars. If the engine is a gem expect to see all four of these teams in the top half of the grid. Actually, probably not Alpine. Go on artist formerly known as Renault, surprise me!
Next Ferrari. They are powering themselves, Haas, and Cadillac. It will be interesting to see how the three pan out. Ferrari usually out-engineer Haas, and Cadillac still does not grasp what it is getting into. I'm gritting my teeth for Ferrari to be in the top half of the grid, Haas around the middle, and Cadillac near, if not at, the bottom. We shall see.
Honda jump from Red Bull to Aston. Their engine has been a cracker under the current regulations. Will the new season see their black art crafting propel the Aston into the top five teams? Cannot wait to find out!
Audi is powering Audi. They know how to race and win in other categories. But then, so did Toyota. F1 remains the only series Toyota have contested and not won. Will Audi suffer a similar fate? They need to perform better than Sauber did in 2025 to arrive with purpose.
Enough general review, back to our questions. Will Haas comfortably outperform Cadillac? Yes. I'm confident that with the same Ferrari power, but with Haas having years of direct experience in F1 they should outperform Cadillac. If they do not... oh dear.
Will Cadillac, like BAR before them, be all sizzle, no taste, and nowhere near the front? Tricky! We will know after the first couple of races if they are humble enough to learn, or too arrogant to grasp the challenge and hard work required for success. They have a pair of classic safe-hands drivers. But then BAR had Jacques for years and it didn't do them any good. I'm expecting them to be bottom three in their first year. I'll be bold... I'm expecting nothing other than dead-last. I mean how could the other teams let them slip by? Alpine! I'm looking at you. Come on. At least beat the new starter!
Will Audi be doing better than Sauber in 2025? Well one would hope so! Sauber finished ninth on 70 points, only beating Alpine who finished dead last on 22 points. With Alpine and Cadillac in the mix one would hope Audi are targeting seventh or above for their first season. By comparison Season 2005 was Toyota's best season. The team finished 4th on 88 points.
Season 2005 is an interesting one. Alonso was World Champion (his first) with Renault. For the Constructors' Championship it was; Renault, McLaren, Ferrari as the top three, then Toyota with Williams right behind them. BAR was 6th, while Red Bull was 7th. Then the bottom three were Sauber, Jordan and Minardi. You'll notice a few names in the top and bottom halves which are battling still today. Bring it on Audi!
Final question. How will Aston do? Awesome driving legend behind one of their steering wheels. Brilliant new facility. A God of Engineering. A very determined owner. 2025 saw them finish seventh on 89 points, 56 to Alonso, 33 to Stroll. Both can finish in the points. Next year? I'd like to see them in the top five. Top three? Let's see.
So, what final prediction is your scribe going to make for season 2026? We will revisit how my predictions played out once the season gets under way.
Based on discussions with my Southern Pitpass cat our season 2026 team rankings from top to bottom are:
McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, Aston, Williams, Haas, Racing Bulls, Audi, Alpine, Cadillac.
So, the top three should be the long-established current class of the field. I expect Red Bull to go slightly backward with the new engine though they might surprise me! Aston should be top half of the field, possibly challenging Red Bull on a regular basis... or will they vault directly to number one!? We shall see.
The crowded midfield should see Williams, Haas, Racing Bulls, and Audi all fighting for the lower points positions. Can Audi spring a surprise and move up to fight with Red Bull and Aston? That would be fun! Then the battle of the wooden spoon. Could Cadillac in their first season outpace Alpine? Given how low Alpine set the bar this year it is possible. Possible yes. Probable? Not so sure.
So once fans have gorged on the curated menu, attempted to "Drink Canada Dry", and snapped a few celebs from 100 yards, if, if, they can pull themselves away from the fan experiences and the concerts, well, they should find on track that each race weekend we actually have a race on our hands for season 2026. Surely Liberty Media and the FIA are staging that secret test to ensure it is so! But bring your ear defenders. Those concerts are probably going to prove louder than the cars.
Max Noble
Learn more about Max and check out his previous features, here
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