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Bookmakers Undersell Hamilton's Title Chances

NEWS STORY
25/06/2019

Betting patterns in Formula One had been remarkably consistent over the last couple of seasons.

Looking at 2017 and 2018, Lewis Hamilton would start out the seasons as hot-favourite, float out a bit in the markets after a (relatively) sluggish start, then hit top form in the summer months to justify his status as favourite. With six wins in eight races, there has, of course, been nothing sluggish about Hamilton, and the Brit is looking unstoppable in his quest for a sixth championship.

A look around the odds for another Hamilton title win throws up an average price of around 1/12, which isn't what a punter would call a tempting price. However, when you consider just how dominant Hamilton has been over the first eight races, it starts to look like quite a generous pricing. If we put it into the context of implied probability, Hamilton has a 92.3% chance of winning the Drivers' Championship. Anyone watching the action at the French Grand Prix at the weekend might think it should be a little higher.

Hamilton suggests best is yet to come

In an ominous warning to other drivers, Hamilton said after the win at Circuit Paul Ricard, "I know people might not want to hear it, but it's going to get stronger from here." How much stronger can it get? Well, if he is able to roll through the summer and autumn months like he did in previous years, then we might perhaps be looking at a record-breaking season.

In sports like horse racing, the punters like to see the favourites winning. But outright betting on the F1 Championship has become a bit stale. Hamilton's was odds-on at the start of the season - a price in the region of 8/11 - and the current odds are not likely to tempt the casual punter, even if they believe it is a sure thing. Indeed, the Constructors' Championship - which sees Mercedes with a 96-point lead over Ferrari - is even less tempting, with odds of 1/500 suggesting your money would be better off in a bank.

Lead could extend in Austria

However, punters are a resourceful bunch, and they find plenty of ways to make F1 betting interesting. For example, Hamilton starts as the 41/50 (888sport) favourite for the Austrian Grand Prix, but those odds will fluctuate in the live betting markets during the race. It only takes a slow pit-stop of flying lap to nudge them in the favour of the punter, who can then take advantage of the fluctuation in real time. Of course, Hamilton might not win at the Red Bull Ring, and Ferrari, who have Leclerc and Vettel both rated at 5/1, have been bullish about their chances in Austria.

While the betting markets will not necessarily reflect everyone's feelings about F1, they do suggest that the race by race action is more important as a spectacle than the overall race for the title. Yet, we are also witnessing greatness, history in action. As Mercedes boss, Toto Wolff, said, "One day he will stop his career with multiple records and people will say he was the greatest driver on the planet." That's what Hamilton is up against this season; the challenge is not against Bottas or Vettel, but a race against the weight of F1 history. He might just win it, too.

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