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Rosberg wins in Brazil

NEWS STORY
09/11/2014

We know, oh boy do we know, that the 2014 title cannot be won here today, certainly not with another of Bernie's brainwaves - "Hang on, lads; I've got a great idea," as Charlie Croker (Michael Caine) once said - waiting for us in Abu Dhabi.

But it can be lost.

All too often we've seen races, even titles decided at the first corner - though back here in 2008 it was the final corner where the championship was won and lost - a lesson the Mercedes duo would do well to heed, especially considering their history.

However it isn't simply the guy in the other Mercedes that Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton have to worry about this afternoon, there's the Williams pair behind them, not to mention the Red Bulls, McLarens and Ferraris.

Of course, other than that first corner - an accident waiting to happen come rain or shine - there is the question of what the weather gods have in store for us and, in turn, tyre degradation.

Despite the threat of rain every single session has been held on a dry track, even if the kerbs and Astroturf run-offs were a little damp, and Rosberg has been quickest in all of them.

The latest forecasts suggest a little bit of everything, what we have come to know as missed conditions, which should certainly add to the spectacle.

With no wet running the drivers will be venturing into the unknown, though with almost all of them complaining of "massive degradation" to the dry tyres we should be in for some fun either way.

According to Pirelli, a three-stop strategy is theoretically the fastest. However, this means that traffic is a real issue - so this strategy is a risk for anything other than the very fastest cars.

The fastest theoretical strategy is: a short stint on soft before changing to medium; medium again on lap 21 and a final stint on the medium from lap 46. A two-stop strategy is almost as quick and carries a lot smaller risk of hold-ups: start on soft, change to medium on lap 13, then medium again on lap 42.

Those choosing to start on the medium have another two-stop option: change to the medium again on lap 29, then try to make up time at the end of the race by switching to soft on lap 58. Most teams will probably start with the idea of doing a two-stop strategy, but maintain the flexibility to do a three-stopper if necessary.

Then again, if it rains, as seems highly likely, if only for part of the race, that all goes out of the window.

Assuming it does remain dry, the Mercedes are hot favourites once again, and while Rosberg has dominated every session here it is teammate Hamilton who comes off the back of a run of five straight wins.

Then again, the Williams duo has looked very strong here and almost matching the silver Arrows for pace indeed, despite two mistakes in Q3 Bottas' best time was still only 0.282s off pole. For once, the Mercedes pair could have a genuine race on their hands.

Jenson Button is one of a number of drivers yet to secure - or should that be retain - a seat for next season, though according to widespread speculation he already knows that he will be ousted at McLaren in favour of Fernando Alonso. Therefore, on the back of another fine qualifying effort, this is the popular Briton's last chance to impress prospective employers and even Ron Dennis, though teammate Kevin Magnussen will be equally buoyed up. That said, if conditions do become changeable what better opportunity for Jenson to impress.

For once Sebastian Vettel appears to have the wedge on teammate Daniel Ricciardo, though it must be said that the German appears to be one of several keen to see the back of the season. While the Red Bull has looked fairly strong here it is no match for the Mercedes or even Williams.

While Kimi Raikkonen has looked far more settled with the handling of the F14T this weekend, he could only manage tenth in Q3, two spots behind his teammate. Already surpassed by Williams, the Maranello outfit appears to be under increasing pressure from McLaren.

Toro Rosso has been uncharacteristically out of sorts this weekend, not helped by Daniil Kvyat's engine penalty from Austin, and this must give a glimpse of hope to Sauber as the Swiss team seeks its first point of the season.

Though Lotus was showing signs of improvement in the wake of Pastor Maldonado's points finish in America, it all seems to have fallen apart since, whilst Force India's sudden drop in form continues.

Of course, we talk of Button and others facing the possibility that this is their penultimate Grand Prix, but that applies to a number of teams also. F1 was already grieving, what with two of its own - Michael Schumacher and Jules Bianchi - fighting for their lives, but this is something we can do without. Sadly, we can see both sides of the argument but to the rest of the world the sight of multi-millionaires pleading poverty and fighting for a bigger slice of the multi-billion dollar cake must make the 'sport' appear even more self-centred than it was already perceived.

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READERS COMMENTS

 

1. Posted by Kkiirmki, 10/11/2014 20:36

"Good to see Rosberg show a bit of resolve dealing with the pressure from Hamilton. A great race from him and exactly what he need to do if he has any chance of winning the championship. Good to see Kimi fighting on track too for a change "

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2. Posted by TokyoAussie, 10/11/2014 0:22

"Thankfully, the championship goes down to the wire legitimately and not just on Bernie's points system. Although that points system could still play a part. Hopefully not. We should also remember that if another of Bernie's schemes (medals) had been implemented, Hamilton would already be champion about 4 races ago. "

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