It's been three weeks since Lewis Hamilton Shanghaied the win in China, and there is no reason to expect any teams other than Red Bull or McLaren to contend for the win in Istanbul this weekend.

Williams is in complete disarray, with announcements of retirements or resignations of the key engineering and design personnel. Remember during the off-season when most observers felt Nico Hulkenberg had been treated shabbily by not being re-signed for this season? Even if he was driving a cab in Berlin right now he'd be with a better team. Williams may soon find itself back with Virgin and HRT, a truly great fall for a team that was so strong in the 80's and 90's.

Ferrari is also struggling to compete, but thus far are not washing their dirty laundry in public to the extent that Williams have. Expect both Ferraris to finish in the points this weekend, but finishing closer to tenth than first.

And then there are the tyres. The build-up of "clag," as David Hobbs calls it on the Speed broadcasts, has made going offline to pass a very tricky proposition thus far, so it is hoped that the tyres will be shedding a bit less this week.

With it seeming certain that Red Bull and McLaren are likely for the first four spots, in qualifying and the race, the question is can either Renault or Mercedes
break through to a podium. Renault has shown they have the speed, with two third places so far, but it may be Mercedes turn., if any of the Red Bulls or McLarens has difficulty. My expectation would be that Petrov will be the quicker Renault, and, as usual, Rosberg the quicker Mercedes. At Ferrari it is time for Alonso to best Massa, but if the car is not quick enough to contend for a podium, will Alonso start to lose interest?

Among the other teams, Force India and Sauber seem to be making the most progress, and the always forceful Kobayashi will be a driver to reckon with, especially if he can get to Q3 and start in the top 10.

Interestingly, the 'experts' are predicting rain for all three days of the meeting. More of a Turkish shower than a Turkish bath.

My gratitude for a Sunday start at 8am Eastern time cannot be measured. After having the first three races in the middle of the night here, the beginning of the European season is very welcome news for me.

Let's hope for a fun, exciting, safe race. Enjoy!

Jim Casey
jim.casey@pitpass.com

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