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FEATURE BY MIKE LAWRENCE
02/05/2016

A team from Sheffield University has undertaken a statistical analysis of the performance of F1 drivers in relation to the performance of their teams. The study concluded that the team was at least six times more important than the driver, a proportion that has increased over the years.

It reminds one of what Bernie once said about drivers, that they were like light bulbs, when one failed you screwed in another. That was a Bernie wind-up because he still paid Nelson Piquet while many a Number Two at Brabham had to bring money.

It is the guy in the cockpit who has to deliver a design's potential and who has to make an instant decision as to whether an overtaking move will result in glory or a walk back to the pits.

My impression was that the Sheffield exercise was not to ruin the endless pub debate about drivers, but to advertise the work of the university's Methods Institute which can provide services to a wide range of clients. If it was also intended to grab media attention, it succeeded.

Formula One is an ideal subject because though teams are involved, individuals are on the track and success is measured by wins and points and not, for example, by goals saved.

The study ranks Fangio as number one, followed by Alain Prost and Fernando Alonso. Michael Schumacher is ranked ninth, though if his come-back years with Mercedes F1 are discounted, he rises to third. Niki Lauda does not register, but Christian Fittipaldi is ranked eleventh. Discuss.

Sheffield University's press release mentions 'greatest' whereas Dr Andrew Bell, the leader of the study, uses 'most accomplished', yet both are in the same document and are not the same thing. Greatness implies a dimension beyond accomplishment. Newton and Galileo were great scientists who knew less about physics or astronomy than most science graduates do today. Your teacher at school knew more about physics than Newton.

A statistical analysis can measure only that which is known and quantifiable, like race results. It cannot measure the impact that an individual, like Niki Lauda, can have on a team. And a statistical analysis has to work to its own definition of history which may not be that of an historian.

The Sheffield study does not analyse F1, it analyses the World Championship, ignoring the Indianapolis 500 which was a round of the Championship, 1950-60. The Championship was run to Formula Two, 1952-3, but F1 races were still held and they were ignored.

Non-Championship races were ignored as well. There was a time when a country that aspired to be included in the Championship first had to run an F1 race to prove its competence. Chris Amon (Matra MS120) won the 1971 Argentine GP and Carlos Reutemann (Brabham BT 34) won the 1972 Brazilian GP, but neither win counts.

In 1952 there were seven Grands Prix in France, only one of which counted to the Championship. There was a separate championship for them which, like the headline event, was won by Alberto Ascari (Ferrari T500).

For some years, Reims and Rouen alternated to hold the Championship event. Luigi Musso (Lancia-Ferrari) won at Reims in 1957. The race had a full GP field. It was run on a GP track over a full GP distance, but Musso won in a year when Championship points were not awarded.

Have you seen a World Championship point? Or held one in your hand?

Jim Clark won the 1965 Championship with seven wins, but he also won five other F1 races and also the Indianapolis 500 which was no longer in the Championship though it had been for 11 of the 16 years of the series.

It is now a commonplace that a driver's greatest rival is his team-mate, but it was not until the mid-1980s that some, not all, teams could prepare two cars to an equal standard. As teams adopted computerised machinery so the position changed.

When every component was hand-made, there were often wide discrepancies in the quality of components. The Number One driver received the best chassis, the sweetest gearbox and the engine that was a tad sharper. When a young driver joined a team, he automatically received lesser equipment.

When Stirling Moss drove for Vanwall he was allowed to drive all team cars and choose the chassis, engine and gearbox he liked best. Nobody thought him a diva, they thought Vanwall was doing its best by its Number One.

This attitude skewed results for the best part of forty years. A team had its lead driver and the others were there to support him, as most riders in the Tour de France cycle race are there to support their team's star.

The study records where Michael Schumacher would have stood if his 'come back' seasons are excluded, no doubt to avoid flak. It does not offer a similar courtesy to drivers who had to serve their apprenticeship receiving lesser equipment than the star.

Lotus wanted to sign Derek Warwick as joint number one for 1986 and Ayrton Senna vetoed the move. Senna did not fear Warwick's speed, but he knew Lotus was incapable of preparing two number one cars and feared that his bid would suffer if they tried.

Statistics using the World Championship cannot measure the advantage some drivers had in the early 1950s. Giuseppe Farina set pole in the first World Championship event in 1950, but he had first raced in a Grand Prix in 1935. Mario Andretti set pole first time he drove a Grand Prix car. The two achievements are not equal.

Statistics do not take account of the extraordinary. Take Fangio's last win, the 1957 German GP, often cited as one of the greatest drives ever. What most people overlook is that it was the first time in a Grand Prix that a pitstop had been used as strategy, rather than as a necessity.

Maserati had brought along Pirelli 'red spot' tyres which had grip but not longevity. Fangio started on half-tanks and stopped to take on more fuel and two new rear wheels. It was not an 'accomplished' drive, it was touched by greatness. The strategic pit stop would not be repeated for a quarter of a century.

Six months later Stirling Moss won the Argentine GP in Rob Walker's 2-litre Cooper-Climax. The Cooper had bolt-on wheels and a stop for tyres was expected. Too late the pursuing Ferrari team realised that Stirling was not going to stop. He drove on oil patches to preserve his rubber and for the last few laps, his canvas.

Stirling spent his last three seasons driving for Rob Walker's private team. Remember, the study looked at the performance of drivers relative to their team which, for statistical purposes, was Team Lotus for which Moss never drove. He won four Grands Prix in a Lotus before Team Lotus broke its duck, and one of those races was the 1961 Monaco GP when he drove a year-old car and gave away 25% in power to Ferrari.

John Surtees was recruited by Ferrari in 1963 as much for his engineering skill as his talent as a driver. John remains the only GP winning driver who also designed an F1 car capable of finishing in the top three (Mike Hailwood, 2nd 1972 Italian GP, Surtees TS9B). What he contributed to his 1964 World Championship with Ferrari is incalculable.

Equally incalculable is what Jack Brabham brought to Brabham. It was he who took an Oldsmobile V8 block to Repco and suggested it might make a replacement to the Coventry Climax FPF engine in the Tasman series. Repco made only one Tasman engine, which was a failure, Jack's team won two World Championships with Repco engines.

Statistics number crunch wins and places but there have been some remarkable drives by men who did not either last the distance or finish within the points for reasons such as punctures. Alain Prost, for example, is often thought of as a percentage driver, but he could tiger when he needed to. He is the only driver in the ground effect era to make up a full lap after a puncture as he did in the 1987 Japanese GP, but finishing seventh counts for little.

Sheffield's publicity uses 'greatest'. Dr Bell set out to find the 'most accomplished' and they are different things. If I argue about greatness, I cannot include Prost, Schumacher or Senna because all three punted a rival from the track. I can no more consider them among the greats than I could consider an athlete great who has used performance-enhancing drugs.

Christian Fittipaldi is rated 11th in the survey though after his brief F1 career 1992-4), team managers were not trampled in the crush to sign Fittipaldi. Statistics can throw up curious anomalies. The Vatican City is an independent state. As you would expect, it has the world's lowest birth rate, but it also has the world's highest crime rate. The Vatican has a population of around 500, but 13 million visitors who include pickpockets…

According to statistics, Sin City is not Las Vegas, it is the Vatican, a view long held by some Protestants.

Note that I have not quoted Benjamin Disraeli's famous quip: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.' This is because I am an historian and know there is no evidence that Disraeli ever wrote it, or said it. It was ascribed to the great man to give it credibility.

Dr Bell set out to find the 'most accomplished' driver but the media, beginning with the university's press release turned that into the 'greatest'. The survey was about the ratio of influence between driver and team, which is why Christian Fittipaldi scores so highly.

My contention is that history is more complicated than results which is why the pub debate about drivers should not be affected by the survey. Charge your flagons and go to.

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1. Posted by ARL, 08/06/2016 19:20

"Len Terry (designer of the Indy winning Lotus 38) designed the Eagle cars for F1 and Indy in '66 and '67. The Eagle from '67 is arguably one for any list of all-time elegant F1 designs.

Way off topic, I wonder if there is still time to revitalise the "Gurney for President" campaign before November."

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2. Posted by Ric J, 04/06/2016 3:31

""John remains the only GP winning driver who also designed an F1 car capable of finishing in the top three" Can't the same be said of Dan Gurney's Spa winning Eagle-Weslake?"

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3. Posted by JackTheCat, 10/05/2016 22:34

"Thank you for the David Hayhoe book recommendation, sitting here reading it now.... fantastic!"

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4. Posted by father guido, 09/05/2016 17:12

"Okay Mike you did it again. I'm 57 years old. And, after reading yet another great article. I see myself as a youngster walking through an orchard with an oversized bushel basket. I can't pick them all and I can't eat them all. But, I'm going to try! And yea, I'm buying the book. You are the man!"

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