15/04/2018
NEWS STORY
If yesterday was pivotal in terms of the world championship, today could be positively seismic.
The last time Ferrari strung three wins together was early 2008, when Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa actually won four races in a row, though the title eventually went to a certain L Hamilton following a thrilling Brazilian Grand Prix.
Though Australia involved a lot of luck and errant software, and Bahrain was more about management in terms of tyres and pressure, thus far this weekend Ferrari has demonstrated that we are likely looking at a new order, as finally, after four years of domination, Mercedes prepares to lose its crown.
Of course, Ferrari gave its German rivals cause for concern last year, but then it all began to fall apart, thanks in part to human frailty and the Italian team's penchant for shooting itself in the foot. Will Ferrari finally get it together again this year, and can it maintain it?
Today's race is going to be about strategy. Though conditions are much better than the previous two days, in terms of tyres - especially at the start of the race - the die is already cast.
Ferrari and Mercedes are both starting on the harder soft (!) tyres, which though slower are far more durable. Red Bull, and the remainder of the ten drivers that made it to Q3, will start on the ultrasofts, which while faster are only good enough for half a dozen or so laps before they begin to fall off... no pun intended in terms of the recent spate of unsafe releases.
With Ferrari clearly having the 'grunt advantage', it will be about the two Ferraris making great starts and working together, one driver riding shotgun for the other. Mercedes, and in particular Lewis Hamilton, has to spoil the party.
With pole never likely and the 'best of the rest' out of touch, it's unclear why Red Bull opted for the strategy that it has, surely both drivers would have been better off starting on the softs. Then again, the Austrian team has enough on its mind, what with engine reliability and Verstappen's 'over enthusiasm'.
As if this wasn't enough - and we are trying our very best not to go all 'build up the hyperbole' here - there is the ever entertaining and ever changing battle for supremacy in the midfield.
While Kimi Raikkonen has started all three races 2nd, Nico Hulkenberg has been either 7th or 8th, and can therefore be expected to be looking for another decent points haul - or as decent as it can be when the first six places are essentially reserved - but the German will be under pressure from a revived Force India, Haas perhaps even McLaren and Toro Rosso, not to mention a Renault teammate who, thus far, has been regularly outshone.
Having bagged a couple of points, courtesy of Marcus Ericsson, in Bahrain, Sauber is struggling here, while Williams looks set for another afternoon of pain.
While the weather looks settled, the cold and cloud of previous days finally giving way to sunshine, along with strategy, another big factor today will be getting through the first lap unscathed. Over the years we've witnessed a number of incidents, especially at the infamous opening T1, T2, T3 complex, and with an eye to Singapore 2017, let's hope Vettel and Raikkonen don't throw it all away before it has hardly begun.
In terms of strategy, according to Pirelli - and they should know - the quickest strategy is a two-stopper. Two stints on ultrasofts of 16 laps each, then mediums for 24 laps. Alternatively, two stints on ultrasoft of 17 laps each, then soft for 22 laps.
However, a one-stopper is possible also. Starting on softs for 21 laps, then change to mediums for 35 laps. Alternatively, start on ultrasoft for 18 laps, then change to mediums for 38 laps.
Another aspect to consider, in terms of tyres, is that the Ferrari pair both have 1 new set of softs available and one set of used, whereas the Mercedes only have two used sets apiece. On the other hand the Mercedes duo is alone - of the big six - in having one new set of ultras.
Of course, new rubber, and free tyre choice, will play into those starting just outside the top ten, including Magnussen, Ocon and Alonso.
In reaction to yesterday's drubbing, Damon Hill referred to Mercedes defeat as the 'fall of an empire', which is a little bit over the top even when considering that in his TV pundit role he has to allow for a certain degree of drama. However, surely it was inevitable that sooner or later the old guard would have to give way to the new... even if it's a surprise to see Ferrari finally raising its game.
Then again, there is much going on behind the scenes, not least the ongoing discussions with the sport's new owners and a number of driver contracts about to run out, not least Hamilton's. So perhaps we are witnessing the end of one reign and the beginning of another. It is the way of things.
As the pitlane opens and the cars head out to the grid, the air temperature is 18 degrees C, while the track temperature is 38 degrees. After two days of temperatures barely reaching double digits, in many ways the teams face a whole new challenge today, having had no running here is such conditions.
On his way to the grid Hamilton calls for a "three hole" adjustment to his wing. He pits to have the change made and then heads back out.
As they prepare to head off on the warm-up lap, Hamilton is querying the amount his wing was changed compared to his teammate. The Briton is also concerned that his left-rear will struggle. His suggestion that he'll "be surprised if it's a one-stop", intended for whom exactly, his team or Ferrari?
All are on softs bar Verstappen, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Perez, Sainz, Grosjean and Hartley who are on ultras, while Gasly is on mediums.
They're away.
Great start by Vettel, who moves across to cover his teammate, with Bottas also quick to get away. Bottas is around the outside of Raikkonen in T1 with Hamilton also almost alongside the Ferrari. However, in T2 the Briton is on the outside allowing Verstappen to come through on the inside. Just behind, Ricciardo has the inside line on Hulkenberg.
Through T3, having missed out on Hamilton, Ricciardo is three abreast with the Renault pair on the inside. Further back, Alonso and Perez touch forcing the Mexican wide and losing a heap of positions in the process.
Verstappen and Raikkonen continue to scrap but the ultras on the Red Bull are clearly an advantage
Verstappen is delighted at his great start. "See you ******* later son," he shouts, though Raikkonen doesn't hear him. He is subsequently told to calm down by his crew.
At the end of lap 1, it's: Vettel, Bottas, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Hamilton, Ricciardo, Hulkenberg, Sainz, Grosjean and Magnussen. Perez has slipped back to 14th.
After two laps, Vettel leads Bottas by 2.5s with Verstappen a further 1.3s behind. Gasly has dropped to 19th on his mediums.
As the two Renault hold station, Alonso is all over the rear of Magnussen... two drivers who won't put up with any nonsense. As Alonso appears to fall back slightly, Magnussen closes on his Haas teammate.
Running together, Stroll and Perez close on 12th placed Ocon, as Gasly shadows Leclerc and Ericsson harries Hartley.
Told to "let Kevin by before T14", Grosjean obeys the command with his usual diplomacy. His response involves a lot of asterisks. Of course, the two were involved in some silliness last week in Bahrain. "It's only lap 6," as Grosjean points out.
The Frenchman is now under pressure from Alonso, while Vandoorne passes Sirotkin for 15th. Alonso has a look at T14 but is unable to make it stick.
In seventh, Hulkenberg has slipped to 8s behind Ricciardo.
Concerned at having lost a place at the start, Hamilton apologises. He is told to keep his head down. He is currently 1.3s down on Raikkonen and 1.9 ahead of Ricciardo.
At the end of lap 10, Hartley is the first driver to pit, the Toro Rosso driver switching to mediums.
Next time around Ocon stops, the Frenchman sticking with softs.
Alonso is all over Grosjean as Ocon goes quickest in S2 on his new softs.
Sainz and Perez both pit at the end of lap 12, the Spaniard switching to mediums.
Hulkenberg pits and like his teammate he opts for the medium rubber.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Shanghai, here.
Hamilton thinks he has debris in his left front which is causing vibrations. He rejoins in 13th ahead of his teammate but in traffic.
Sainz and Gasly battling for 15th, the Frenchman determined to resist his Spanish rival. However, courtesy of DRS, the Renault eventually flies past.
As Grosjean pits, when asked if he's being held up, Hamilton admits that he's pushing but finding it hard to keep up with Raikkonen who is 2.1s ahead.
Ricciardo and Verstappen both pit at the end of lap 17, both switching to the mediums. They rejoin in 5th (Verstappen) and 7th (Ricciardo).
"Box, box, box, box," Hamilton is told, "do the opposite to Raikkonen." The Finn stays out so Hamilton pits. Switching to mediums he rejoins just ahead of Ricciardo who has just passed Magnussen.
Bottas pits next time around, at the end of lap 19, now on mediums, he rejoins still in third ahead of Verstappen. "Push hard, give everything," the Finn was told on his in lap.
Vettel pits at the end of lap 20, he appears to take an age leaving the pits and as a result he rejoins 1.3s down on Bottas, with Raikkonen still to stop.
"Good job," Bottas is told.
On fresh rubber, Hamilton posts a new fastest lap (36.878) as he hunts down Verstappen who is 2.33s up the road.
"You need to stay in front of Vettel," Bottas is told.
On their fresh rubber, Vettel and Ricciardo both post PBs. Vettel is now 1.3s down on Bottas.
Vandoorne pits at the end of lap 22, while Hulkenberg passes Stroll to take 9th.
Raikkonen is now lapping in the 39.3s compared to Bottas who is on 37.5, the Ferrari driver has to pit soon. Or is he being used by Ferrari to back up his countryman into the 'arms' of Vettel?
As Stroll pits at the end of lap 23, Magnussen is told to increase his pace. "Not possible, not possible," comes the reply. Indeed, he subsequently pits.
As Alonso is told to extend his run, the Spaniard giving detailed info on his tyres and balance, teammate Vandoorne clashes wheels with Stroll following the Canadian's pit stop as they battle for 16th.
Bottas makes a move on Raikkonen who is really struggling. The Finn tries to resist but it is futile. The Mercedes is eventually through, going around the outside in T3, and Vettel follows. As he slips to third Raikkonen will now surely pit.
Indeed, at the end of lap 27 the Iceman pits, switching to mediums and rejoining in 6th behind Ricciardo.
An unforce error for Leclerc, who spins in T2. The youngster subsequently blames poor balance.
On fresh rubber, Raikkonen goes quickest in S2 as he sets about closing the 11.8s gap to Ricciardo. Meanwhile, Vettel is just 1.1s behind Bottas, a reversal of the situation in Bahrain seven days ago.
Out come the yellows as Gasly and Hartley trip over one another at the hairpin. Despite the Frenchman's claim that "he closed the door", the fact is that he went for a gap that wasn't there.
As a result of the debris following the Toro Rosso incident, the safety car is deployed at the end of lap 31.
The Bulls both pit, both switching to softs. Hulkenberg also pits, as do Sainz and Ocon. Replay shows Verstappen overtaking a Toro Rosso as they both headed into the pitlane.
The Toro Rosso incident is to be investigated.
Unsure of the damage to his car, Hartley says it "doesn't feel too bad".
After what seems an age, track marshals finally begin to clear the debris.
All of which has allowed Raikkonen to leapfrog Ricciardo and close back in on Verstappen.
Behind the safety car, after 33 laps, it's: Bottas, Vettel, Hamilton, Verstappen, Raikkonen, Ricciardo, Magnussen, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Alonso.
The safety car withdraws at the end of lap 35. The only driver caught out at the re-start is Grosjean who is caught napping by Alonso. The Frenchman fights back but it's too late.
As the Panthers almost take one another out, Gasly is handed a 10s time penalty for the incident with his teammate,
As Raikkonen harries Verstappen, Grosjean is passed by Sainz.
In 7th, Hulkenberg posts his own quickest lap of the race (38.525).
Ricciardo has a look at Raikkonen while the Finn nips at the rear of his Red Bull teammate who in turn is harrying Hamilton.
A typical bit of late braking showmanship sees Ricciardo nail Raikkonen at the hairpin. The Australian is through to take 5th. Good, clean driving by both men.
"Very nice job," Ricciardo is told, "keep pushing now."
With 18 laps remaining, the top five are covered by 0.713s.
Making full use of his fresher, softer rubber, Verstappen gets alongside Hamilton, however as they battle for position the Red Bull runs wide. The Dutchman loses a position to his Red Bull teammate who takes up where Max left off.
Another sensational move at the hairpin sees Ricciardo take third from Hamilton, a move which goes down well with his crew. It doesn't go down so well with Hamilton who queries why his team didn't pit him also.
"Next one is Vettel, go get him!" Ricciardo is told as Verstappen closes on Hamilton.
In the process Ricciardo has posted a new fastest lap (36.608).
It's déjà vu all over again, as Verstappen nails Hamilton in a repeat of the move which saw the Briton lose out to his Red Bull teammate.
Fresh rubber and a nice two see Ricciardo sweep by Vettel to take second. As the Australian sets off after Bottas, Verstappen closes on Vettel.
Hamilton's day looks about to get worse as Raikkonen closes in.
A minor lock up at the hairpin sees Verstappen try to take advantage, they touch and spin. As both get going again, Hulkenberg passes Vettel who drops to seventh.
"I don't think I need to say anything," says Vettel as the stewards announce they will investigate. "He locked up, and turned in very sharp," insists Verstappen.
Out front, another typically bold move sees Ricciardo take the lead, mixed fortunes for the Red Bull pair. Also Raikkonen has passed Hamilton to take third leaving the Briton at the 'mercy' of Verstappen.
"Don't give up," Vettel is told, though he is now 2.1s down on Hulkenberg.
Verstappen is given a 10s penalty for causing a collision, which at this stage effectively drops him to 9th.
Out front, in clear air, Ricciardo posts a new fastest lap (36.221).
Vettel is advised of Verstappen's penalty as Ricciardo posts another fastest lap (35.983).
Verstappen passes Hamilton with ease, the Red Bull driver now needing to make up for that 10s penalty.
Now Raikkonen closes in on Bottas, the Ferrari driver just 1.1s down on his countryman.
As Raikkonen harries Bottas, Vettel appears to have given up on passing Hulkenberg, or does the German have damage following the clash with Verstappen.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Shanghai, here.
Just outside the points, Perez is hard on the heels of teammate Ocon as they battle for 11th.
Vettel, having lost 5.2s to Hulkenberg, is now under pressure from Alonso.
Hartley is in the pits and looking likely to be the sole retirement of the day.
Raikkonen complains that he's losing grip, the Ferrari driver continuing to stalk Bottas while under attack from behind from Verstappen.
As Bottas locks-up, losing ground to Raikkonen, Alonso passes Vettel at the hairpin. "He can't just run me off the track like," complains the German, "it was intentional."
The incident is noted by the stewards.
Ricciardo takes the flag, just 24 hours or so when he struggled to even make it into qualifying.
Bottas holds off Raikkonen for second, while Hamilton is fourth, ahead of Verstappen, Hulkenberg, Alonso and Vettel, who sees off a late challenge from Sainz. Magnussen takes the final point scoring position.
Ocon is eleventh, ahead of Perez, Vandoorne, Stroll, Sirotkin, Ericsson, Grosjean, Gasly and Leclerc.
No further action will be taken over the Alonso/Vettel incident.
Understandably, Ricciardo and his team are ecstatic, and why shouldn't they be. Not long ago we were querying the tyre strategy, and yet, on the appearance of the safety car, it was the Austrian outfit that made the right call, double-stacking its drivers to add further risk.
"As the Aussie whoops with joy, his team congratulates him on his clinical moves. Let's not forget, in the wake of last week's race, Ricciardo was critical of Bottas for not trying it on with Vettel, now you can understand why.
"It was a difficult afternoon," admits Vettel, "at the end, after the shunt, I had quite a bit of bottoming and a lot of understeer mid-corner so no fronts at the end."
Looking remarkably relaxed in the podium ante-room, once Ricciardo has finished making faces to the camera, Raikkonen shakes his hand, the Finn refusing to rise from the comfort of his chair. No acknowledgement from Bottas however.
"I don't seem to win boring races, they are all pretty fun," says Ricciardo on the podium in a masterpiece of understatement. "I thought we may be starting at the back of the grid, again thanks to the boys for yesterday, the mechanics worked their butts off."
"It was pretty hectic, double stacked in the pit stops," he adds. "But sometimes you just have to lick the stamp and send it!
"Obviously we had the soft tyre so I knew I could get more out of the braking than them. Sometimes you just get one chance to try so I had to take it," he beams.
"We were giving everything we had," says Bottas, "it felt like everything was under control.
"I think we could have done it," he adds, "but this is racing these things happen."
"Obviously we stayed very long out," admits Raikkonen, clearly a favourite with the crowd. "We had a little bit of luck with the safety car, in the end we needed the soft cars to really go for it.
"Once you get close it's so difficult to follow, you need much better tyres. I take what I got as at one point it didn't look good at all."
So, Vettel retains his championship lead, but it has been reduced to just 9 points, while Mercedes has a one point lead in the team standings.
After a topsy-turvy weekend in China, we now head to Azerbaijan, and we all know what happened there last time around.
Check out our Sunday gallery from Shanghai, here.