18/04/2013
NEWS STORY
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Supporting the Stats
A 3.36 mile (5.4 km) undulating circuit, 57 laps and high temperatures are the obvious Bahrain features. But for something more enlightening about the country itself the ever obliging Wikipedia has just marked my card.
Firstly Bahrain has a few quid, it also has a few people. 1.2 million to be precise, however more than half of that number are non-nationals.
The country has a chequered history and, resultantly, a 2008 survey showed there were just 37 Jews living on the island country. To balance the books Bahrain's King appealed to former Bahraini Jews abroad in the US and UK to return to their motherland offering them compensation and citizenship.
Bizarrely the Bahraini weekend is Friday & Saturday and not Saturday and Sunday. Those two days off give you a chance to play football - which is the most popular sport in the country - and find a mate.
If you do go on a date best make it a dinner date as a BK whopping 28.9 percent of Bahraini men are officially obese as are an unattractive 38.2 percent of women.
However life expectancy still runs at a respectable 73 years for men and 76 for women. I'm unsure if that's in any way related to the country's good roads and shopping malls or another fact which may make Bahrain's 295 sq miles attractive to Europeans: In 2007 Bahrain became the first Arab country to offer unemployment benefits.
Suddenly I'm not trying to identify a race winner but to pinpoint Bahrain's perfect immigrant and in early exchanges Kirstie Alley - who has not worked in years - opened as odds-on favourite. She appeared to be the ideal candidate for immigration ticking all the right boxes.
However it transpires she is not Jewish. Kirstie Alley was actually raised a Methodist and now follows Scientology. Additionally she claims to be Irish and is back on a diet. Citizenship? Jules Bianchi has a better chance of setting the fastest lap in this weekend's race en-route to winning the Drivers' Championship methinks.
Anne Widdecombe has been a springer in the market but while, as a politician she has never worked, apparently she doesn't play football and the South Korean's are currently trying to recruit her as their deterrent from North Korean invasion.
I'll stick with betting on F1 for now …and the forthcoming Eurovision Song Contest in which Norway's entry is an each-way gift at 7/1 incidentally.
Compromise
Now there are a few things during my life which I have always known were not for me: Homosexuality, voting Lib-Dem, joining a cult, taking a package holiday and backing Sebastian Vettel.
But today the pillars of my life lay shattered. My philosophy is in flux, I've backed the German ace and the big question now is… which of my other strict value-systems could fall apart next?
Before you know it I could be reaching for a holiday brochure even if I'd prefer to have my left ear slowly removed by a cheese grater before going somewhere where bling-clad Brits lie on their Union Jack towels roasting themselves to a piggie-pink amid the scent of chips, lip-gloss and pints of Fosters.
I have compromised myself because, at odds of 5/2 about the reigning World Champion winning in sand-swept Bahrain, the bookmakers have compromised themselves. Surely Thomas Cook or First Choice will not do the same.
The very reason I've refrained from backing King Seb is the reason he must be backed this weekend. Value. There is no value in backing him week-in-week-out at 6/4. There is huge value backing him here at 5/2.
I don't understand how former driver turned pundit Johnny Herbert can keep, when prompted, putting forward Massa, whose record now stands at 0 wins from his last 70 races, and Mark Webber (3 wins from 49) as his race-win fancies. Then again I don't understand why teams run simulators to predict the outcome of a race when me, Nostradamus II, is here willing and able.
Naturally the heart says Fernando but my head, and every stat in the book, says Sebastian will be storming back to dominance at a track which has repeatedly proved custom-made to his car's wants and needs.
Odds of 5/2 equates to 28.6 percent probability. Is Sebastian Vettel's chances of winning just 28.6 percent? Of course not especially when you consider:
China 2012: Mercedes engines were all-dominant producing the top three cars on the grid and the top three places on the podium. That included Rosberg who won the race by 20 seconds. The Red Bulls, which qualified a woeful 7th and 11th, ultimately finished fourth and fifth.
Bahrain 2012: What a difference seven days can make with Red Bulls qualifying first and third. Vettel went on to win the race and Renault powered cars filled the first four places. Rosberg was beaten into fifth 55s behind his countryman.
There was no Bahrain GP in 2011 but in 2010 the contrast between its results and those of China were abundantly clear once again. In China, run a month after Bahrain, the best performing Renault-engined car finished just fifth. But in Bahrain Vettel had the race safely in the bag before a broken sparkplug scuppered certain victory.
Vettel was also runner-up in the 2009 Bahrain Grand Prix conclusively proving the term 'horses for courses' does not exclusively apply to equine athletes. In total Vettel has claimed 22 wins from his last 61 races; 16 wins since the start of 2011 season (a 38 percent strike-rate) and has won five of his last ten outings.
Most importantly this is his car's type of track. Hot, undulating, dusty, overtaking is not exactly commonplace, gear changes are high, pit stops aplenty (71 last year), heavy on the brakes. Whatever the factors are the stars simply seem to line-up for the Red Bull/Renault combination here.
Boasting three previous wins in Bahrain and a car which is brutally fast my heart still says Fernando's the man but he cannot qualify his Ferrari on pole, his equipment just doesn't work that way. There is also a strong likelihood it may, like the Mercedes, struggle to bring its China form here.
With all factors taken into consideration Vettel looks at least 40 percent likely to win at this circuit this weekend and therein the head rules out. Prepare to rip the stitches out of the bookmakers' satchels by backing him at odds way in excess of the probability of him standing on the podium's top step
This Week's Selections:
Race Winner: Sebastian Vettel - Odds: 5/2 Ladbrokes
This week's investment: 200 points
Current profit/loss: +365 points
© Roy Brindley 2013
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