03/10/2012
NEWS STORY
I heard a rumour the other day that Ferrari have a big update planned for Suzuka: yeah, it's a sweat resistant steering wheel cover for Alonso, to compensate for how much he has been rubbing his hands together with glee recently.
Martin Brundle and David Croft alluded to his 'bag of magic dust' in Singapore and they were on the money. It just keeps getting better for him at the moment. Another weekend off the pace but another podium, gracias. McLaren gearbox gremlins, thanks very much. Red Bull alternator failures, yes please. Distraction for the others with silly-season shenanigans, don't mind if I do.
What's the story then as we prepare for the last six? Can anyone beat Alonso? What is my armchair expert opinion on the driver market shake up and what is the next surprise?
First, the championship. So, Kimi still has a shot, but it is getting longer, unless this 'device' can propel him to the front and somehow help the Red Bulls and McLarens finish the race (in front of red 5) too. Hmm.
Can Hamilton still do it? He got a little bit of luck this week in the form of a five-place penalty for Jenson, who proved himself pretty useful around Suzuka last year. I think that is one less headache for McLaren. If recent performance is anything to go by (famous last words in this crazy season) that will probably put Jenson near Alonso on the grid too, with increased chances of hindrance and squabbling.
It still seems like a big ask. Look at Hamilton's form for his last 5 finishes: It is an average of 3.2 - roughly third place. If he were to continue that form, with no retirements to the end of the season he'd gain another 90 points. Supposing he did that, Alonso would still only need another 7.5 points per race. That's sixth place on average for the last six races. Bear in mind that his form over the last 5 finishes is 2.8 - also roughly third place - it seems do-able.
It looks a lot like somebody is going to be a triple world champion then doesn't it? If Vettel were to continue his form from the last 5 (also averaging third place), Alonso would need to do a little bit better and finish fifth on average at every race. But that still seems well within his grasp.
Bear in mind that the Ferrari has proven the best suited of the big three when it rains. And I'd be surprised if we get through Japan, Korea and Brazil without the odd drop of rain. No, for me, it's still in the magic bag for the Spaniard - and good on him.
It's possible that he will end up winning the championship without being the driver with most wins in the season. Looks like the fancy scoring system that has rendered all records as good as useless is doing the trick then, as it was intended to get drivers to race for victories!
Champions have been tied on victories before: Vettel and Alonso both won 5 in 2010. And in both 2005 and 2006, Alonso's championship years, he was tied on 7 wins with Kimi and Schumacher respectively.
Hamilton won it in 2008 with one less victory (5) than Massa (6). But Hamilton's Belgian Grand Prix victory was handed to Massa in one of the most ridiculous stewards decisions ever, comparable to a football ref going, 'I prefer Man United to Arsenal, so I'll just disallow that goal for Walcott and award two to Anderson'. So really it was 6:5 to Hamilton - I'm not counting 2008.
You have to go all the way back to 1989 to find a champion with less wins than the second place man. On that occasion Prost was champion with 4 wins and 6 second places. Senna racked up 6 wins but had 6 retirements and a disqualification.
If Alonso wins the championship without winning another race which, by the way, I am saying is a possibility not a certainty, he would win the championship with the lowest percentage of wins (19%) since Keke Rosberg became champion with just one win in 82 (6%). He would be the first man since Piquet to win the championship with just three wins. Piquet did that twice: in 83 and 87.
Anyway, that's enough pointless facts. If he wins it he'll deserve it because he has been awesome for most of this year and the others have all been a shambles at some point or another.
So that is 2012 dealt with, onto 2013. There was a revelation in the F1 world last week and I for one will admit that I was completely taken by surprise. Eddie Jordan, was completely right about something.
I think Hamilton's move to Mercedes is brilliant: Everyone is a winner. Mercedes have one of the best drivers to wring the neck of their car: Hamilton has a new challenge which will be great to watch: The fans get to see each of the top five teams spearheaded by a world champion - top six if Herr Schumacher goes to Sauber: And Perez gets the chance I think he deserves, not playing rear gunner at Ferrari. Brilliant, sign me up for 2013. What will the next development be?
In a desperate attempt to spot the next breaking story, I have delved into the dark and mysterious world of twitter. It was extremely revealing at the Belgian Grand Prix a few weeks ago, so since then, I've been following all things F1 and can tell you that there has been plenty going on; and it's not all about Lee McKenzie getting a new sofa and liking hot chocolate (but she has and she does). Here's my twitter round up, or as I like to call them 'Tweet Nothings'.
Heikki Kovalainen had a busy week: He managed to overcome the flu and predict the European comeback in the Steve Ryder Cup (it's golf apparently).
While Perez tweeted a picture of himself and his mum (sweet) on the flight to Japan (apparently the first race she has attended since Monaco last year), Alonso tweeted a picture of himself and his girlfriend Dasha (hot).
Romain Grosjean had a tough time getting through immigration. Bit surprised he didn't just push people out the way and jump over the top of the queue. Too soon?
Massa tweeted a picture of his travel with Ferrari: it showed the first class Emirates bathroom on the plane, which is bigger than my bedroom. Probably better make the most of that for the last six races I think Felipe.
I don't understand what Kamui Kobayashi tweeted.
Nico Rosberg says it is 'very cool' that Hamilton is going to be his team-mate and that it will be 'another great challenge'. He also retweeted a brilliant pic of a young him, Hamilton and Kubica in the karting days.
No news on Nico Hulkenberg's page of an offer from Ferrari, but a very nice offer from a (possibly crazy stalker) lady: 'I kiss you in all not tanned places of your young strong man's body.'
There was a bit of banter about the fact that Button is no longer 'following' Hamilton. But then JB pointed out that he never was in the first place. I think he will be on Sunday though #fiveplacepenalty.
I'm sorry to say that, try as I might, I couldn't find a hint of a big story on twitter. Perhaps then, the real story there is that since the 25th of September Hamilton, a prolific tweeter, hasn't said a word.
What is going on there then? Post break-up blues? Just focussing on the task in hand? Either way, I suspect he is going to come out the traps at Suzuka faster than Eddie Jordan can say 'BBC' on a podium.
It's going to be a cracking end to 2012 and I think it might just get even better next year.