06/07/2011
FEATURE BY GLEN CROMPTON
Normal people believe that if it ain't broke, don't fix it - engineers believe that if it ain't broke, it doesn't have enough features yet. Such are the number-crunching boffins who dominate and define modern F1. Gone are the slide-rule-toting, rule-of-thumb, best-guessers of the Chapman ilk; behold the new multi-degree-toting number-magicians, armed with data gathering capabilities and computing power that would have been the envy of NASA during the Apollo missions. They scrutinise, analyse, monitor, simulate, and postulate their way through their work. As I type these guys are probably calculating modifications to their cars or pitstop strategies that may yield an advantage measured in thousands of a second.
So if F1 is all about numbers now, it's time I got on board. A trawl through the results of last season and this, a few spreadsheets, the odd macro, and a bottle of fine red or two later - hey presto, I came up with what follows. I doubt it will have F1 teams (or website editors) beating down my door with job-offers but at least for once I can support some of what I say with numbers. Worrisome that I may have enjoyed this exercise to some degree! May the Lord Harry deliver me from the evils of my inner, latent engineer!
The 2011 season is conspicuous for the greed with which Sebastian Vettel harvests victories. At this stage of the year in 2010, Button, Hamilton and Webber had each won 2 races and the remaining 2 victories were shared between Vettel and Alonso. This year Sebastian's metronomic pace sees him with 6 wins, leaving Button and Hamilton a win each.
Less obvious though still significant is the improvement in classified finishers this season. The 2011 European GP is the first I can recall in a goodly long while where 24 cars were still running as the chequered flag fell (someone is sure to email me the last time it happened). So far this year, only 35 drivers have not been classified, nearly half the 2010 number of 60. Even then the 2011 figure is inflated by a couple of disqualifications, a couple of 107% rule failures in qualifying, and a DNS due to injury, none of which appeared in the 2010 number. While DNFs in the leading bunch are low in both seasons, this higher overall finishing rate in 2011 leaves fewer "crumb points" under the table after the top teams finish their feast.
Last year Seb won the world title with a total of 256 points. A mere 8 Grands Prix into this year's (now) 19 race calendar and he has already amassed 186 points, only 70 shy of his 2010 title score. Indeed after round 8 last season, he'd only 90 points to his name, less than half his total at the same time this year. He's not managed the perfect possible tally thus far of 200 point but then he's only 14 points off that magic mark thanks to finishing no lower than second in the events he so carelessly didn't win. Assuming he has at least this lead by the end of the Korean GP he could, in theory, choose to sun himself on a tropical beach instead of competing in the last 3 Grands Prix and still win the title. Little wonder that, with more than half a season left to run, Vettel's rivals are already conceding defeat.
It seems a long time ago but after round 8 in 2010, Red Bull trailed McLaren 215 to 193. With the Red Bull juggernaut currently on 295 points, 89 ahead of McLaren's 206, the numbers support the general belief that their car is the class of the field. Fans of Mark Webber are not going to love me for so saying but the truth is he's not extracted the same potential from his car as Sebastian this year. I say that in the full knowledge that there are those parochial Australians (among whom I do not number) who still cling to the vain hope that Mark is not given equal footing at Red Bull. Even if there were an agenda at Red Bull to advantage Sebastian, such is his present advantage that the team ought be working harder to ensure Webber harvest maximum points since the constructor points at season's end determine the apportionment of Bernie's revenues back to the teams. In other words, handicapping Webber, as some have suggested is the case, equates to taking money out of their own bank and setting fire to it. I, for one, doubt Christian Horner is that stupid.
In fact I'm compelled to digress from numbers for a moment to address the eternal issue of driver parity within teams. Whensoever a race team has two or more drivers, this hoary chestnut arises. It is, after all, a motor sport axiom that drivers must first best their team mates in order to justify themselves to their own egos. Regard Johnny Herbert at Benetton in 1995, paired with Michael Schumacher. Johnny felt then, as he seems to this day, that Michael got a better deal. I respect Herbert immensely for his nuggetty comeback from the kind of crash that would have ended most sporting careers. But the ugly truth is that he was not as fast as Michael. Put yourself in the shoes of the team boss. You have a guy who is faster than his team mate and only one new red-hot bit to use. Do you give it to the slower guy to show how fair you can be or the faster guy to get more points and therefore more money? It's a little like asking if you'd prefer to eat fillet steak or broken glass isn't it?
With 129 points to date in 2011, Ferrari is 77 adrift of McLaren and indeed 32 points behind their own count at this time last year. Ferrari seem to be paying heavily for their inability to consistently take points from McLaren.
For the uninformed, The Scuderia went into the last race of last year with Alonso leading the driver's title. Chris Dyer was singled out and "re-deployed" as a result of a bad strategy call that cost Fernando his title but with the way 2011 is unfolding, perhaps that has not been a prudent move?
Mark Webber and Jenson Button are presently on equal points for second place with scores remarkably similar to those both had at this point last season. In 2010 Mark was sitting on 108 points, 1 less than his current score while Jenson, was on 106, 3 fewer than his tally to date this year. Both have reputations as consistent performers and the numbers certainly bear that out. In the unlikely event Vettel has a series of stumbles and squanders his 3-race-lead these are the two drivers best placed to win a "Prost" style championship.
Further down the table you begin to see whose expense all Seb's extra points have come from. Fresh from a round 8 victory, Lewis was on 109 points last season, 12 points more than his present total. If you ignore Vettel's runaway lead, Lewis' tally is quite is still quite respectable - only 12 points behind Button and Webber - and this certainly doesn't bear out the popular press stories about his supposedly erratic driving this year.
Fernando is another who's failed to measure up to his 2010 score albeit by only 7 points. Looking more closely at the numbers, he's toiled much harder for this lesser score. In 2010 his points had come from 2 wins, 3 seconds, a third, and 2 fourths. This year he's already had a DNF and only visited the podium 3 times, once for a third and twice for a second. The rest of his points have come from a fourth, a fifth, a sixth, and a seventh. However large the media reports his annual stipend to be, he's earning every penny of it this year.
It shouldn't come as any surprise that Alonso's team mate is chasm off his tally of last year. I number among those who feel the Brazilian is not the driver he was before an errant spring smashed through his visor at the Hungaroring a couple of years back. True there have been good races since his comeback but not enough to convince me other than he's grasped that F1 supremacy pales when compared to his role as a husband and father; and I'd be the last man on earth to condemn his choice if that is the case. None the less, Felipe had been on the podium 3 times by this stage of 2010 whereas this season he's finished no higher than 5th. Indeed he's only scored points in 5 of the 8 events and already suffered 2 DNFs.
Unlike a TV reality show victor, Nico Rosberg is probably not too thrilled to have earned the title of biggest loser. He's 34 points behind his 2010 total to date having managed points for only a pair of fifths and a pair of sevenths. Last season he'd scored points in all but 1 round including a couple of trips to the bottom step of the podium. He continues to outpoint his 7-time-world-champion team mate which in itself is impressive. None the less, I get the impression that either Nico finds a team worthy of his talents or risks becoming the next Barrichello.
A more difficult comparison comes at Renault with Nick Heidfeld deputising for the much-loved Robert Kubica. The pole had amassed a healthy 73 points at this stage of the season in 2010 compared to Nick's modest 30. Heidfeld has had a single trip to the podium for a third in Malaysia and only scored minor points in 3 other races. Contrast this with Kubica having logged a third a second and scoring good point hauls in all but one other race.
To be fair to Heidfeld, the quantum leap in the form of team mate Vitaly Petrov has impacted on the German's ability to match Kubica. Indeed Vitaly is currently heading Nick by 1 point in the championship. Petrov's first 8 races of 2010 were a fairly miserable affair, having scored points only once for a seventh in China. Otherwise he had 4 DNFs an eleventh, a fifteenth, and a seventeenth. This year the Russian has scored points in half the races including a third at Melbourne.
I am old enough to still find it jarring as I regard Michael Schumacher sniffing about for scraps underneath the points table and I thought he'd looked more like a seven-time world champion this season than last. Yet he's 8 points adrift of his 2010 point tally. Last year those points came from a sixth, a tenth, and 2 fourths. This season there have been 2 DNFs, a ninth, an eighth, a sixth, and a fourth. True that the Mercedes is far from the class of the field but then team mate Rosberg, who's not having as good a year as last, has still managed a 6 point lead over Michael.
The only driver other than Vettel enjoying a notably better season is Kobayashi. Eight races into 2010 Kamui had a single point to show for his trouble while this year he already has 25 - indeed all but 2 of Sauber's points are thanks to the Japanese driver. Bear in mind that his score would be 4 points higher but for the DQ from P8 at Melbourne when the Sauber fared less well than it could have in post-race scrutineering.
Chances are Adrian Sutil won't be well pleased that he's bagged only 10 points this year, less than half his comparable 2010 haul of 23. This season he's only scored in 3 races compared to 6 last year. Interestingly last year Adrian's team mate Tonio Liuzzi had amassed 10 points of his own where as new team mate Di Resta has only 2 points to his name. Generally it looks as though Force India have lost some ground to their near rivals Sauber and Toro Rosso who had 1 and 8 points respectively at this time last year, trailing Force India's 35.
Underscoring the last remark is the fact that both Toro Rosso drivers are faring modestly better this year with both sitting on 8 points. Last year Buemi had 5 points and Alguersuari 3, half the team score of this season to date.
Earlier this year, Williams afforded Sam Michael the "opportunity" to tumble onto his metaphorical sword on the basis of the team's worst start to a season ever. Looking at the numbers, they seem to have been splitting hairs a bit. This time last season, they had only 8 points while so far this year they've managed 4 and it would probably be nearer 8 but for Hamilton punting Maldonado out of a points finish at Monaco. The point is that it was only from round 8 of 2010 onwards that Williams managed the 61 extra points which gave them sixth in the constructor championship, a clear sign that the car was greatly improving over the latter part of the year. I've a hunch that history will show Sam Michael is not the reason Williams is presently a fallen giant.
Sadly, the 3 "new" teams and their drivers are yet to trouble the points table, just as they didn't in 2010. Indeed unless my eyes have finally glazed over from all these numbers, of the events where these teams have made it home, they are yet to finish on the same lap as the leader. Often they are a number of laps adrift.
Actually, I think I liked it better when numbers weren't so pivotal in F1!
Glen Crompton
crompo@pitpass.com
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