17/02/2005
FEATURE BY GUEST AUTHORS
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It's the time of year when all the pundits trot out their tired old predictions for the upcoming year. So, not wanting to follow the path of everyone else, I will unfold my 'feelings' on what will happen this year. They're not 'predictions', understand.
Ferrari will win everything. Again. Michael Schumacher shows no signs of tiring or retiring. His motivation still seems to be its usual 100%. Rubens Barrichello will pick up an occasional scrap thrown from the pit wall. Hopefully they won't do anything to, once again, bring the sport into disrepute. Even if the other teams have raised their own performance, it's still tough to compete with a championship winning team that has all the same personnel in place, a tyre optimized to it's chassis and it's own private test tracks.
The best of the rest will probably be McLaren. Led by the most exciting driver pairing in years, the paragons of F1 culture and business should be ready for a comeback year, still stinging from last year's half season of embarrassment. Ron Dennis will string together innumerable nouns and verbs to say things that could have been boiled down to a 5 word sentence, but it will be his ability to keep Juan Pablo Montoya calm, focused and away from fast food joints, and convince Kimi Raikkonen to let it all hang out only on track that could have them winning and contending.
As for Renault, this is probably Ol' Flav's last year at the sharp end. There have been plenty of hints that it will be his last, so he'll want to go out a winner, sailing into the sunset to knock up whatever supermodel suits his fancy. As for the drivers, both need a big year. Fernando Alonso has plenty of promise, but aside from a couple of sparkles, hasn't come on as the saviour he was predicted to be. The same has been said of Giancarlo Fisichella. This is Fisi's last best chance to prove he's as good as everyone claims. He has usually been at the wrong team at the wrong time. For Fisi's sake, hopefully Renault will have their act together for a serious run at 2nd place. It would be very nice to see him chalk up a couple of legitimate wins and stop his talk about joining Ferrari.
For Williams, this is the year of the great unknown, although I'd hesitate to call it a rebuilding year. Mark Webber is poised to become either the next Alan Jones or the next Alessandro Zanardi. His mental outlook, preparation, and commitment remind me of a certain current World Champion. He appears to be focused only on Formula One. I believe he's the real deal, but a few people said the same about Nick Heidfeld. Plucked from the edge of obscurity, Nick has the chance to regain his 'Quick' and deliver on some of the promise that was thrust upon him when he was the young McLaren wonder boy. A lot of races have gone beneath the chequered flag since he beat Montoya in F3000, but this is his first chance to be competitive. It would be a coup for Sir Frank if Nick were neck and neck with his teammate near the top of the grid. This is the first full year for Sam Michael as Technical Director, having been appointed last season. It's a sign that Sir Frank and Patrick Head aren't afraid of change to keep the team moving forward.
It's put up or shut up time for BAR. Having been bought out by Honda, it will be interesting to see if David Richards had as much to do with BAR's success as he thought. The new tyre and engine regulations will also expose Takuma Sato as a contender or pretender. While few now doubt Jenson Button's ability and maturity, Sato may be exposed as a driver with more balls than brains, with previous years' rules and technical regulations allowing him to drive, full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes. If Sato shows the ability to keep his head and manage his tyres and engines, he could beat Button to the top step of the podium. It's all dependent on Ferrari not winning and Honda's ability to keep an engine together for 2 race weekends.
The time has come for Toyota to step up to the plate. They appear to have all the pieces in place, starting with Mike Gascoyne. They have a solid 2nd class driver line-up in Ralf Schumacher and Jarno Trulli. They certainly have the budget. What they may be missing are the intangibles. They still have the stigma of (allegedly) stealing Ferrari technical data hanging over their heads, and there is the omnipresent looking over the shoulder from Japan. The biggest question is how long Gascoyne and Schumacher the lesser can co-exist. Ralf's well-known penchant for mailing in the result when things aren't going his way won't sit well with 'Gazza'. Toyota could well win a race this year, however it would be the type where Ralfie was quick out of the box, takes the lead early and cruises the rest of the way. Don't look for any hard fought victories or podiums.
Sauber have the potential to be solid or very bad. Early indications were that the chassis needed some serious sorting out, but of late Felipe Massa, has shown speed. Jacques Villeneuve has been doing setup work and has said the chassis seems to be better. It'll be interesting to note how Sauber fares with the switch to Michelin and the Ferrari engines. The engine should be bulletproof, but with the tyre switch and Sauber a member of the 'Gang of 9,' mysterious engine maladies could be only a data burst away. Villeneuve is one that the new regulations could benefit. With his experience and raw talent, there's always the possibility that the only former WDC on the grid could steal Peter Sauber's first win.
Red Bull Racing, nee Jaguar, are going to need some serious wings to get any exposure this year. Dietrich Mateschitz appears to have all the makings of turmoil on his hands. Back biting, upheaval and strife appear to be taking hold at Milton-Keynes already. David Coulthard will have to dig deep into his Scottish determination for anything good to come out of this season. For starters, the team is set to split its 2nd driver duties between Christian Klein and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Klein has the benefit of a full season behind him, although the rumour is that Liuzzi shows more promise. Tony Purnell and David Pitchforth, the 2 that led Jaguar from oblivion into mediocrity have departed, with the reasons still fairly obscure. There's no question the skids were greased and Christian Horner and Gunther Steiner will be compared to the former 2. Unless Coulthard can make lamb stew out of haggis, look for a battle at the bottom for Red Bull.
Where to begin with Midland/Jordan? Or is it Jordan/Midland? About the only thing the team will have in common with last year will be the colour of the car, presumably to be yellow for the duration of the season, and the running position. If Giorgio Pantano underwhelmed you last year, wait until you get a look at this year's driver line-up. Rookie drivers in Narain Karthikeyan and Tiago Monteiro, a rookie owner in Alex Shnaider, a rookie partnership between Midland/Jordan and Toyota, departure of key personnel and 19 races this season are a combination that will firmly put the team at the bottom. If Shnaider and his people expect this, and are in the game for the long haul, then call this a starting point. If he expects business to boom simply because he owns an F1 team, then this will be the beginning of the end for the team Eddie Jordan kept afloat for over 10 years on string, bubble gum, promises and luck. Perhaps at the end of the season Eddie Jordan could pull a Bernie and buy back the team for 20% of what he sold it for. Formula One should be so lucky.
Minardi. Oh, where to start. Paul Stoddard: the pit bull of the paddock. He has certainly taken a big bite to start the season. He will be starting the season with the old car, and has backed both himself and the FIA into a corner. If the 'Gang of 9' stand behind him and stay behind him, they will show Bernie, Max and Ferrari they are serious. However, if Bernie gets even one other team to whore themselves to him beyond 2008, it's all over. Stoddard will be swinging in the wind, Ferrari will get the lion's share of the revenue, meaningful regulation changes to help the on track product will not happen, Bernie will continue to keep a huge percentage of the money and we'll all be back to square one.
As far as on track performance, Stoddard has said the 'radical' new Minardi will be ready for Imola. Nobody as yet knows what is radical about it, but I have a radical idea. Minardi will not be last. With all the problems of Midland/Jordan/Midland and Red Bull, I wouldn't be surprised to see the hardest working little team in Formula One earning more than one point this year and ending the year in front of both. Let's not forget that Minardi had an incredible streak of consistency the last couple years. But even though they were slow and steady they still didn't win the race. I expect them to earn some respect this year. For all his bluster at times, Stoddard is a very hard worker, loves Formula One and understands what it is all about.
As for everything else, I think the Gang of 9 will come up with some good proposals and a compromise will be reached. (Call me an optimist.) Bernie will win in court. Qualifying will be a disaster, but nothing will be done. In the United States, the races broadcast on network TV (CBS) will be an unmitigated disaster, brought to us by people who know nothing about Formula One. Thank God SPEED Channel will be re-broadcasting those 4 races at night. Feel free to bookmark this page and humiliate me come November.
Formula One Management will once again be host broadcaster for several of this year's races, again beginning with Australia, Malaysia and Bahrain. In addition to China, they will produce the inaugural Turkey event. There are very strong rumours they will also be taking over host duties for both North American stops, and will assume control of Belgium. Being an American, and knowing people in the television field, I'd love to know FOM's reasons for taking over the U.S. Grand Prix. As a viewer, the production of the race at Indianapolis has always been first rate. Will FOM be bringing their own crew, or use a majority of homegrown talent who have worked the race in previous years? The same can be asked about Canada. The Canadians have always produced strong races, both in F1 and ChampCar.
It's my assumption that within about 5 years, FOM will be producing all the races. As promotion contracts expire, Bernie will renegotiate with the proviso that television will be taken care of by FOM. While this may not be good from the vantage point of FOM controlling all the images, it will have the benefit of a consistent vision from the director's and producer's chairs. Hopefully as FOM gains control of more races, the quality of product from Bernie's 4 jets worth of equipment will be the equal to that of the former F1+ Digital broadcasts. One can only hope.
As always, hate mail may be sent to: Thomsonphilips@hotmail.com