With the driver odds for the upcoming F1 season now released, some fans of Mercedes may feel mildly outraged at the sight of any bookmaker tipping Max Verstappen to finish second, despite driving a machine still considered unlikely to challenge Mercedes' long-standing reign.
It is true to say that the 254-point gap that separated Mercedes and Red Bull in 2020 might justify such feelings, and the 227-point average gap between 2014 and 2020 certainly does. Yet, few neutrals could deny that Verstappen captures the imagination in a way that Bottas never has, or will, but could that alone be enough to see a Red Bull driver break the 'Merc-opoly' at long last?
Tied with Michael Schumacher in the all-time title stakes, reigning champion Lewis Hamilton is chasing an outright record eighth world title, but the race for second seems far more open to debate.
Hinging on Hamilton
All of the most famous tournaments out there featuring a wide range of live wagering and moneyline market odds, have their predetermined favourites. Another 'Mercedes 1-2' largely depends on the long-term fate of Sir Lewis Hamilton, with the inexperienced George Russell pencilled in to replace him in the Silver Arrows' paddock.
As for Red Bull, there is great anticipation that everything will ride on Verstappen, with Sergio Perez firmly the team's 'secondary' driver. This is a risky strategy, and puts pressure on someone who has only ever experienced upward trajectory in his career, but it has worked in the past.
A textbook example would be during Michael Schumacher's early 2000s dominance with Ferrari, when he won five of his seven world titles. Nobody, teammate or otherwise, could match him for skill, but teammate Rubens Barrichello's excellent sense of vision enabled him to manipulate the flow of the race in Schumacher's favour.
In turn, Barrichello has the dubious honour of having the highest number of race starts by far (322 - a whole 76 ahead of David Coulthard) without winning the championship.
Red Bull chemistry needs time
There was an obvious element of sacrifice involved in that 'modus operandi', but Ferrari were the undisputed kings of the sport in that era, after largely underachieving in the decade prior. The Verstappen/Perez partnership needs significant time to reach that level of potency though, which gives people every reason to maintain the belief in a 'Mercedes 1-2' atop the driver's standings.
Many backing Verstappen and/or Red Bull for second in their respective tables will do well to remember that Perez is a newcomer to Red Bull, and also carries a new burden as he aims to finally build a solid reputation. Indeed, he left Racing Point (now Aston Martin) only in the 2020 close season, after producing no highlights of note before winning the 2020 Sakhir Grand Prix. Prior to joining Racing Point, he had taken just four podiums - each via third place - in as many seasons with Force India.
Ferrari determination a potential disruptor
In 2021, the Honda engine of 2020 (Honda RA620H) will be upgraded accordingly to keep Red Bull competitive, as will the RB16 chassis - now known as RB16B. While they now appear to be Mercedes' closest title rivals, there is still the anticipation of a comeback from Ferrari, who finished an uncharacteristically low sixth place out of ten in 2020.
Ferrari's long-standing reputation in the sport will not allow such an indignity to be repeated. Team boss Mattia Binotto has led the cavalry charge ahead of the 2021 season, and as reported on Formula1.com on January 23, he stated: "This team has been capable of finishing second in the past five years except one third, so I think that third is not fully impossible. And I think that should at least be our minimum objective for next season."
He also noted the potential impact of Aston Martin's rebirth and McLaren's new Mercedes power unit, and this alone puts McLaren in the frame for a podium finish, as they look back on a 23-year constructor's title drought.
Who will finish second?
As already noted, Hamilton's long-term future is vital towards the makeup of the standings, and Verstappen knows only one way - upwards.
However, the daredevil Dutchman will not break into the top two by virtue of high finishes. While Bottas doesn't have the ability to dominate to Hamilton's extent, Verstappen's fate rests on McLaren and Aston Martin both falling short of expectations - as they very well might, should the transitional period affecting both teams make a deeper impact than anticipated.
