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Bookmakers don't expect Mercedes to have it all their own way

NEWS STORY
21/02/2017

We are just weeks away from the start of what promises to be another exciting F1 season and the big question is: can anyone end the stranglehold Mercedes have enjoyed over the sport for the past three years? The bookmakers certainly think the German team will win it, but they don't expect them to have it all their own way and it is expected to be tighter than the previous season.

The shock departure of world champion Nico Rosberg undoubtedly rocked Mercedes this summer. Mercedes' non-executive chairman Niki Lauda said Rosberg "made us look dumb" by quitting after giving no indication he would retire and leaving them with little time to find a replacement. Speculation was fierce as to who would team up with Lewis Hamilton this season, with many dreaming of either Sebastien Vettel or Fernando Alonso joining to give Hamilton a fierce battle all season. Mercedes went for a much safer option in Valtteri Bottas, the steady Finnish driver who is expected to clock up points for the team all season but bow down to Hamilton's overall superiority.

That is borne out in the odds on who will win the Drivers' Championship. A bet365 review of the odds shows that Lewis Hamilton is the 5/4 favourite and Valtteri Bottas is out at 4/1. Sandwiched between them are the Red Bull drivers Max Verstappen (3/1) and Daniel Ricciardo (7/2). Hamilton and Rosberg have been first and second favourites for the previous two seasons and it is telling that a Mercedes driver is only fourth favourite in the running to win the Drivers' Championship.

The bookmakers, like many fans and pundits, clearly think Red Bull will be a threat this year. They won it four years in a row before Mercedes took the ascendancy, and were Mercedes' closest rivals last season, despite many tipping Ferrari to be their nearest competitors.

This year Red Bull are widely tipped to be the greatest threat to Mercedes' crown, and they could capitalise on the instability at Mercedes by returning to the summit of the sport. They have a settled pairing in Verstappen and Ricciardo, two drivers that complement one another well. Ricciardo is the more composed of the two and has more experience, which allowed him to finish ahead of his exciting, risk-taking teammate in third place in the drivers' standings last year. Former driver Mark Webber expects Ricciardo to have the edge once more this time around. "When you've seen more regulation changes, like he has done, driven different types of cars, that's an advantage for him. It's going to be a good battle there. But the composure side is a big plus for Daniel. He's got plenty of fire too, and it's all about putting the weekends together."

Ricciardo could be a good outside bet for the Drivers' Championship, but right now it is difficult to look past Hamilton, who has established himself as the best in the business in recent years and only failed to win a third consecutive title last year due to a dodgy engine in the first half of the campaign.

But in the Constructors' Championship, Red Bull may be more of a threat, and rule changes may work to their advantage for this season. The new aerodynamic rules could leave more opportunities for overtaking as there will be more drag. Red Bull have a strong technical team and Red Bull seem to be getting a jump on the rule changes, so they may be able to close the gap. Ladbrokes expects it to be tight, with Mercedes 4/6 favourites and Red Bull out at 6/4. However, thanks to their recent dominance it is hard to tip anything but a Hamilton-Mercedes double this season.

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