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FEATURE BY MIKE LAWRENCE
07/07/2016

I wonder for how long there will be top class professional racing. The autonomous 'driverless' car is more advanced than any layman could have guessed a couple of years ago. Established manufacturers were playing their cards close to their chest but the fact that Google and Apple are developing them has changed the game.

When Tesla first made cars, the company was widely viewed as another eccentric marque, of which there are several every year. Not only has Tesla made huge advances in electric cars, it has made great strides in autonomous vehicles. Production is currently 1,000+ cars a week and an upcoming, less expensive model, has received a huge number of deposits.

There was a recent fatal accident in autopilot mode, but it appears from early reports that the driver was not following instructions. It is tough on his family, but the circumstances of the accident will assist programming.

Norway has announced that cars with internal combustion engines will not be sold there after 2025, yet Norway's wealth comes from North Sea oil. The Nethrlands may follow Norway's example.

At present, most electricity is produced using fossil fuels, which are finite. Your electric car may be clean but emissions are created elsewhere, in power stations, while fossil fuels are used to make every part of a car. Power stations, however, are more fuel efficient than cars.

At the beginning of the 20th Century, electric and steam cars were more advanced than the internal combustion engine. Electric cars, however, had limited range and steam cars took time to prepare. Petrol engines won because they were the most convenient and so received the most intense development.

In 1901 Ferdinand Porsche designed the Lohner-Porsche Mixte, a petrol-electric hybrid which had electric motors within the hubs of two, or four, wheels which, in the latter configuration gave four wheel drive. Progress was thwarted by the unreliability of gears and couplings available at the time and there was not the impetus to develop the support technology.

When Count Vicenzo Florio (creator of the Targa Florio) visited Paris, he bought one of the new automobiles and shipped it home to Sicily. He had, however, overlooked a crucial point, nobody in Sicily sold petrol so he had to import cans of the stuff.

Pioneer motorists everywhere had to buy petrol in cans from pharmacies or hardware shops. The first filling station did not appear until December, 1913, in Pittsburgh by which time there were millions of cars and more than a thousand makers had come and gone.

Filling stations were soon everywhere and even villages had a pump. A similar growth could occur with battery-powered cars, where the entire pack is changed (many battery packs are now leased from manufacturers).

Many manufacturers are experimenting with hydrogen cells which have been known since 1838. There has not been the imperative to develop them until recently, technology often needs a kick. For an automotive application, the main problems have been reduction in size and the efficient production of hydrogen and its safe storage and transfer to a vehicle.

At present there are few hydrogen stations, but if there is money to be made, hydrogen fuelling will follow.

At the recent Goodwood Festival of Speed there was displayed a hydrogen cell prototype from a new company called Riversimple which is looking for crowdfunding. Two claims stood out for me, one was the refuelling time of three minutes, the other was the range of 300 miles.

Electric cars are on their way and Formula E has been more successful than many, including me, predicted. Autonomous cars are inevitable and one day people will look back and wonder how we could possibly have tolerated the carnage on our roads, as we wonder how boys could once have been sent up chimneys to sweep them.

We admire top drivers because of their skill, as we admire star performers in any area. Most of us have kicked a ball so we can connect with top footballers. We have sung at some time, and danced, so we can relate to exceptional singers and dancers. Stars are people who do things that we wish we could do whether it is to cook or tell jokes.

The Rio Olympics is almost on us and there will be gold medals awarded for events about which most of us could not care less except for nationalist reasons. A top pole vaulter is a star to few people because few of us aspire to do it.

A little over a hundred years ago, the horse reigned supreme and there was a pecking order among drivers as there is with cars today. A sporting gentleman drove a two-wheeled curricle with a matched pair of horses and Jane Austen was specific about this when, in 'Sense And Sensibility' she wanted to present an aspect of Mr Willoughy - he drove the equivalent of a Ferrari or McLaren. Today horse-drawn carriages in the West are used for pleasure rides though there are competitions for carriage driving.

In 2005, the FIA sold the rights to Formula One for a hundred years. It is unlikely the sport will last that long except as an amusing reminder of how things once were, like steam trains run by enthusiasts.

Motoring enthusiasts are not going to give up their special cars, but we are seeing the rise and spread of the track-day car, some of which are not even road-legal.

The motor car is unique in that governments can use it for taxes and control its use. In Britain, there was a time when there was no upper speed limit, or alcohol limit, and when seat belts were not mandatory. In the UK, in 1966, there were 7,985 fatalities; now with many times more vehicles, there are fewer than 2,000. Government is committed to lower that figure and the autonomous car looks promising - it will not tail-gate, exceed the speed limit, or make obscene gestures to other cars.

Fuel supply is a sensitive political issue and is likely to become more so with the growth of car ownership in China, India and Russia. All-electric cars in Britain are more expensive than petrol-powered cars, but the government subsidises each purchase to the tune of £5,000.

We have seen the public in some countries become more sensitive to environmental issues and it was not that long ago that leaded petrol was removed from garage forecourts. Pollution charges in some cities were greeted by howls of protest, now they are accepted.

It took a very short time for automotive power to replace the horse, the coming revolution will be even quicker. Consider computers. Thirty years ago there were outfits tuning car suspensions with Sinclair Spectrum computers which had only 128K memory, and they made a difference. The suspension of the Aston Martin Bulldog Group C car was tuned, by Ray Mallock, with a Sinclair Spectrum.

Thirty years ago a mobile phone was the size of a brick and they did nothing except make and receive phone calls.

Quite apart from the inevitable changes in technology, there is the matter of identifying with a sport. My four year old grandson is a typical boy who loves steam engines, cars and planes. I wonder what the automotive world will be like in 2029 when he will be eligible to drive.

It is fair to assume there will be many autonomous cars on the road and the move is likely to be started by fleet buyers since it like giving their employees a chauffeur. There will, too, be the person who wants to be first on the block with the latest toy.

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READERS COMMENTS

 

1. Posted by ghendoaus, 26/07/2016 2:10

"I would still watch F1 in Australia if the entire season was televised and if there was consistency in the application of rules. With limited coverage comes limited interest and if it wasn't for Pitpass, I really think that I would lose all interest! As for the perceived bias to favoured teams and drivers in the application of rules that just sucks!"

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2. Posted by slracer, 17/07/2016 17:19

"There was Road & Track "feature" in the late 50's or early 60's with an autonomous race car with nuclear power that "learned" the track with a human driving. After avoiding a dog, the driver was ejected and the car continued forever dodging the, now none existent, car. The track had to be closed as there was no way to stop it! In a similar way, I think there is no way to stop the move to autonomous cars today. However, one has to wonder how the electric is so well thought of when California (automobile nirvana) can promote them while having "rolling brownouts" every year because there is not enough energy available today (and no more nuclear plants will be made)? Solar won't help with the charge cycle for most of these cars being at night and the wind cannot be counted on as a primary source. Just my thoughts.

"

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3. Posted by Steve W, 16/07/2016 12:55

"@ClarkwasGod

Yes, yes, I know. I know... "

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4. Posted by ClarkwasGod, 12/07/2016 19:08

"Autonomous or driverless racing has, in one form, been around for years - R/C racing - models of varied scale, which can be quite exhilarating to watch, and from personal experience absolutely terrifying to try to control, especially when coming toward you, so the controls are reversed. Other than as a novelty, the thought of watching a bunch of autonomous vehicles "racing" each other leaves me absolutely cold. But then I prefer my Z28 to my A5 for raw exhilaration, and a train to a plane for longer journeys (when possible). It's not what you do, it's the way you do it that ultimately counts."

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5. Posted by ClarkwasGod, 12/07/2016 18:55

"@Steve W

It's called a bus (or a train) and has been with us for many decades."

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6. Posted by Steve W, 12/07/2016 10:08

"I long for the day when I can get in my self-driving electric car and have it drive me safely to work while I nap in the back seat..."

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7. Posted by father guido, 08/07/2016 16:40

"Not everyone gets hooked when introduced to auto sport. My children are proof of that. I don't think anyone can be hooked without the introduction. And there in point is our job. We must introduce the young ones to our love. They may not take to it. But they will remember. I will never forget the first time I heard a v8 engine turn ten grand right in front of me at the local drag strip. It blew my mind. My first whiff of nitro methane. It was at The Coke A Cola Cavalcade Of Stars. I begged my grandparents to take me. I was so hooked. Early electronic injection mounted above the velocity stacks on Formula One Cars! If your a piston head and that don't make your johnson hard, then your one dead mother. I saw David Coulthard on rain tyres at Spa. It made my heart stop. I could not believe how fast he was going. And, if you have never seen the legendary Bob Motz. Well baby you better ad it to your bucket list. Along with so many more. Next time you go. Bring someone who has never been. You just might change their life for the better. Its all good!"

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8. Posted by DavidA, 08/07/2016 7:58

"Great writing and memories and a look in the future from Mike Lawrence. Back in the late 70s when some I met a friend who produced a game of Chess on a ZX80 in 1k of ram and now it has loads of megabytes all singing and dancing game of Chess, but those people who play chess will still get the Chess board out. My point is you may want to drive your well preserved car out for a drive but how will that fit in with autonomous vehicles. My look into the future when I was a child was flying cars and after my latest mobile phone I'm waiting for beam me to Australia (not Scotty) Phone on my wrist. I Wait for the Boo's at Silverstone for Rossberg have a great w/e at the race and hope its a clean fight."

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9. Posted by DavidA, 08/07/2016 7:54

"Great writing and memories and a look in the future. Back in the past in the late 70s when some I met produced a game of Chess on a ZX80 in 1k of ram and now it loads of megabytes all singing and dancing game of Chess, but those people who play chess will still get the Chess board out. My point is you may want to drive your well preserved car out for a drive but how will that fit in with autonomous vehicles. My look into the future when I was a child was flying cars and after my latest mobile phone I'm waiting for beam me to Australia (not Scotty) Phone on my wrist. Wait for the Boo's at Silverstone for Rossberg have a great w/e at the race and hope its a clean fight."

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10. Posted by Spindoctor, 07/07/2016 19:38

"Another thoughtful piece from Mike Lawrence. It's hard to disagree with either his argument nor conclusion. I too have come to the conclusion that the glory days of "Driving" have now passed.

More years ago than I care to contemplate I was teaching just outside Portsmouth. I owned a fairly tatty Fiat 500, which entertained the kids as I unwound myself from within almost as much as driving entertained me. In those pre M4 days I regularly drove from Pompey to Fishguard via Salisbury, Bath & all points West & North. Sometimes assorted friends accompanied me. This was a long, and fairly slow journey, especially in a car whose top speed when new was barely 60mph, but it was genuinely FUN. The Joy of the Open Road was a reality, not an empty cliché. The skill, and much of the enjoyment was in maintaining momentum through anticipation, judgement and avoiding the brakes except when essential.
Most modern cars are much faster, quieter, more comfortable and safer, but most modern roads are clogged beyond breaking point with traffic and hedged with regulations which have squeezed the little remaining fun out of Driving.
I now live in Wales and used regularly commute 50 miles a day: utter tedium on main roads. I positively welcome the advent of the self-driving car, and would have loved the opportunity to spend an hour doing something other than cruising at 760mph. My secret weapon to maintain any enthusiasm for Driving is a Mk1 Elise which shines on our local byways, as would an Mx5. Like Mike I suspect our children's generation, who have never experienced much enjoyable driving will adopt autonomous motoring with considerable enthusiasm.

@GrahamG your point about transmission losses is valid, but you also have to factor-in the fiscal & environmental costs of transporting vast quantities of liquid hydrocarbons.

I too welcome the advent of the self-driving car"

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11. Posted by Canuck, 07/07/2016 17:09

"Another great article Mike. Maybe they need to provide Nico and Lewis some collision avoidance technology.

There is another problem with the electric car at the moment, that of recycling the batteries. Their production and disposal are more harmful to our environment than the IC engine. The new engine technologies and now close to 50% efficient and I am sure more progress is to come.

So for the IC engine - let me quote Mark Twain “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”"

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12. Posted by GrahamG, 07/07/2016 11:39

"Technical error here - although power stations themselves may be (a bit) more efficient than internal combustion engines they are actually much less efficient at the point of delivery because of losses in the transmission systems. Overall they are about 30% efficient at the point of delivery, rather poorer than a modern ic engine"

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13. Posted by HoosierDaddy, 07/07/2016 10:04

""I wonder for how long there will be top class professional racing. The autonomous 'driverless' car is more advanced than any layman could have guessed a couple of years ago."

Not worried. They said almost the same the same thing when the vibrator was invented."

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