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Like the Bookmakers, Hamilton Wins

NEWS STORY
07/05/2014

"Gambling? It's a mugs game, the bookmakers always win". It's a common statement and a common belief but one I will never subscribe to.

But, for one minute, let's surmise those who preach such sermons - and invariably partake in the mass rip-off which is a Grand National fun bet and make a weekly charitable donation via the purchase of Lotto tickets - are right.

It means there is 75 percent degree of certainty (odds of 1/3) that Lewis Hamilton will be crowned World Champion this year. And, in turn, a 28 percent chance (odds of 5/2) he will be awarded the BBC's Sport's Personality of the Year award.

"Folly" some would say, claiming Rosberg is a worthy adversary whilst pointing out he is leading the World Driver's Championship standings. I would point to the barometer of the all-knowing shrewd bookmakers, who state he has just a 20 percent chance (4/1 odds) of prevailing.

Therefore those who reside in the 'folly' camp should invest their annual Lotto quota on this outcome, an investment based on judgement as opposed to blind luck.

Of course they couldn't do that as that would be gambling and the bookmakers always win. Besides, losing money due to blind luck is far more palatable than having your judgement proven wrong.

As the bookmakers are always right (essentially translating to your judgement being wrong) who would have thought Daniel Ricciardo would transpire to be a better driver than Sebastian Vettel?

With the Australian's price for race victory in Spain this weekend being shorter than his vastly more experienced multiple World Championship winning team-mate, that is what you, the bookmakers ally, has to believe.

For four years I relentlessly admonished Mark Webber, berated and ridiculed him and now, through a line of form with Daniel Ricciardo who has a sum total of two top-six finishes to his credit from a 54-race F1 career, it turns out I was being far too kind to him.

It was always an injustice he kept his F1 seat beyond three seasons and another travesty could soon be upon us as the rumour mill suggests Jean-Eric Vergne may be on his way out of the sport.

Three times this season the Frenchman has hauled his Toro Rosso into Q3 (bolstering my bank account - not being in the 'bookmakers always win' camp - in the process) and his reward for such heroics may well be redundancy. Once again, with a line through his former teammate, Ricciardo, the formbook says he is as good as Vettel!

Talking of good, such are his slow speeds and ability to avoid collisions Saga Insurance have offered Max Chilton a fully-comp policy 35-years prematurely. Amongst a select group, Pedro Diniz, Ricardo Rossett, Alex Yoong et-al, he will go down as one of the greats.

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